扒车喵印度国内舆论一向对自己的实力和国际地位充满信心，但民生、科技等领域和欧美发达国家还是略有差距，印度网友在美版知乎Quora上提问道：印度什么时候才能实现成为发达国家的目标？这引起各国网友的围观和热议，他们大多觉得这一目标难以实现。
问题：印度什么时候才能成为发达国家？
美国专家亚瑟•摩根的回答
If India continues to develop in the way it is today, it will never become a developed country.
如果印度继续以今天的方式发展，它将永远不会成为一个发达国家。
Let’s first look at how other countries and regions have become “developed”:
让我们先看看其他国家和地区是如何变“发达”的：
欧洲/Europe
The emergence of the black death and the crisis in the late Middle Ages caused a serious shortage of farmers, ended the feudal system and aristocracy in the European continent, and laid the foundation of private ownership and capitalism. At this time, the European continent experienced a period of radical social change, also known as the Renaissance.
黑死病的出现和中世纪晚期的危机，造成了农民人口的严重短缺，结束了欧洲大陆的封建制度和贵族制度，从而奠定了私有制和资本主义的基础。在这个时候，欧洲大陆经历了一个激进的社会变革时期，也被称为文艺复兴时期。
Later, the European continent took the lead in realizing industrialization. Coupled with the era of exploring and establishing colonies around the world, they have become richer, and the living standards of this small part of their population have improved significantly. After the two world wars, European society has achieved modernization, industrial production capacity has been restored, and Europe has been revitalized.
后来，欧洲大陆率先实现工业化。再加上世界各地探索和建立殖民地的时代，让他们变得更加富有，他们这一小部分人口的生活水平显著提高。两次世界大战后，欧洲社会实现了现代化，工业生产能力恢复，欧洲实现了振兴。
美国/the United States of America
Before the industrial revolution, the United States was not an important power. For Europe, since the 1850s, the United States has only been a manufacturing base for cheap goods. American manufacturing is to meet European consumer demand. After the Second World War, the United States began to take the lead because of the destruction of European industry. The increase in high-value industrial output has raised Americans’ wages and living standards, and the United States has developed with it.
在工业革命到来之前，美国还不是一个重要的大国。对欧洲来说，从19世纪50年代开始，美国仅仅是一个廉价商品的制造基地，美国的商品制造是为了满足欧洲的消费需求。第二次世界大战后，因为欧洲的工业遭到了毁灭性破坏，美国开始独占鳌头。高价值工业产出的增加提升了美国人的工资和生活水平，美国也随之发展起来。
澳大利亚/Australia
Australia became an independent country in 1901. Before that, it was a dependency of Britain. With abundant land resources and sparse population, coupled with good governance and loose development conditions, Australia has rapidly developed into a developed country.
澳大利亚于1901年成为一个独立国家，在此之前它是英国的属地。澳洲大陆土地资源丰富，人口稀少，加上良好的治理水平和宽松的发展条件，澳大利亚迅速发展成为发达国家。
日本/Japan
In terms of society, Japan developed in the Meiji Era (1868-1912), which brought the modernization reform of Japanese society. The transformation of Meiji era directly led to Japan’s transformation from agricultural economy to industrial economy. After the Second World War, Japan focused on technology export to rebuild its industry. With the support of the United States, Japan became one of the largest technology exporters and the foundation of its economic foundation for decades.
在社会方面，日本在明治时代（1868-1912）发展起来，带来了日本社会的现代化改革。明治时代的变革直接导致日本从农业经济转向工业经济。第二次世界大战后，日本专注于技术出口以重建其工业，在美国的支持下，日本成为最大的技术出口国之一，成为数十年来其经济立国的基础。
韩国/the republic of korea
Before 1945, North Korea had been a colony of Japan. After the Second World War, North Korea was divided into two. Until the 1960s, South Korea had been an agricultural economy.
1945年以前，朝鲜一直是日本的殖民地，第二次世界大战后，朝鲜被一分为二，直到20世纪60年代，韩国一直是农业经济体。
South Korea initially relied on Japanese investment. Later, they focused on technology construction and export. Rapid industrialization brought prosperity and social progress. South Korea achieved development in just 40 years, which is known as the “miracle of the Han River”.
韩国最初依赖日本的投资，之后他们专注于技术建设和出口，快速的工业化带来了繁荣和社会进步，韩国在短短40年内就实现了发展，被称为“汉江奇迹”。
海湾国家/Gulf States
Gulf countries have huge oil reserves. They sell oil and invest it in national development. Therefore, in 30 to 40 years, under the condition of abundant resources, countries such as the United Arab Emirates and Qatar have experienced great changes.
海湾国家拥有巨大的石油储备，他们出售石油并将其投资于国家的发展，因此，在30到40年的时间里，在富足的资源条件下，阿联酋和卡塔尔等国经历了巨大的变革和发展。
中国/china
Since the 1980s, the consumption of goods in the United States and Europe has been huge, but the manufacturing cost there is very expensive. At the same time, China has opened up its economy and become a cheap manufacturing center, catering to American and European consumers.
从20世纪80年代开始，美国和欧洲的商品消费量极大，但那里的制造业成本非常昂贵。与此同时，中国开放了经济，成为廉价的制造业中心，迎合了美国和欧洲的消费者。
The government’s investment in infrastructure, coupled with the convenience of setting up factories in China, soon made it a “world factory”. Later, China authorized the development of the private economy so that they have enough ability to cater to the international market. Now, the Chinese government pays more attention to R & D, making China an important science and technology and R & D center. Now, it is transforming into a high-value industry.
政府对基础设施的投资，再加上在中国设立工厂的便利，很快使其成为“世界工厂”。后来，中国授权发展私营经济，使它们有足够的能力迎合国际市场，如今，中国政府更加注重研发，使中国也成为重要的科技和研发中心，现在，她正向高附加值产业转型。
China still has a long way to go to become a developed country, but it goes very fast.
中国要成为一个发达国家还有很长的路要走，但它走得很快。
By looking at these examples, the situation is very clear. To become a developed country, we must have the following advantages and characteristics:
通过看这些例子，情况非常清楚。要成为发达国家，必须要有如下优势和特点：
1. This country must be good at producing or extracting high value-added products, that is, products urgently needed by the people of the world.
1.这个国家必须擅长生产或提取高附加值的产品，即世界人民急需的产品。
2. The country must strive to solve an urgent problem in most parts of the world.
2.该国必须努力解决一个在世界大部分地区都迫在眉睫的问题。
3. In order to meet either of the above two conditions, the country must employ a large population.
3.为了满足上述两个条件中的任何一个，该国都必须雇用大量人口。
Most of China’s economic growth comes from foreign investment, services and consumer spending. If a country acts like the “backstage” and “customer care” in the world, it will never become a developed country.
中国的大部分经济增长来自外国投资、服务业和消费者支出。如果一个国家的战略眼光仅仅停留在像“后台作业”和“客户关怀”那样的行业，它就永远不可能成为发达国家。
India is not good at producing anything that is in great demand in the world – whether it is agriculture, manufacturing products, minerals or technology. India has nothing to use.
印度并不擅长生产世界上需求量大的任何东西——无论是农业、制造业产品、矿产还是技术，印度没有任何可供利用的东西。
In this case, India is entering the middle-income trap, similar to the Philippines, Sri Lanka, Indonesia, Iran and other countries.
在这种情况下，印度正迈入中等收入陷阱，类似于菲律宾、斯里兰卡、印度尼西亚、伊朗等国。
The middle-income trap is a situation that emerging economies may face. In this case, extreme poverty becomes insignificant and the middle class expands. Compared with other emerging economies, China lost in the competition for cheap exports; But neither can produce high-value products to compete with developed countries.
中等收入陷阱是新兴经济体有可能面临的一种情况。在这种情况下，极端贫困变得微不足道，中产阶级膨胀。与其他新兴经济体相比，中国在廉价出口的竞争中失利，但两者都无法生产高价值产品与发达国家竞争。
As a result, the country cannot make economic progress. This happens when a country cannot transform an industry based on cheap labor into a high-value industry.
结果，这个国家无法在经济上取得进步，当一个国家无法将以廉价劳动力为基础的产业转变为高价值产业时，就会发生这种情况。
Turkey, Malaysia, Brazil and Mexico have fallen into a trap, and no country can get out of it.
土耳其、马来西亚、巴西和墨西哥等国已经陷入了陷阱，任何一个陷入这一陷阱的国家都无法走出困境。
Developing manufacturing and R & D reform is the only way to avoid this trap. The harsh reality is that we ignore this year after year. Even today, our manufacturing industry is very bad and our R & d hardly exists.
发展制造业和研发改革是避开这一陷阱的唯一途径，严酷的现实是，我们年复一年地忽视了这一点，即使在今天，我们的制造业也很糟糕，我们的新上马的研发项目几乎不存在。
This problem is much bigger and more urgent than Indians think. By 2030, we expect to become an economy of $10 trillion, with a per capita income of nearly $6700.
这个问题远比印度人想象的更大、更紧迫，到2030年，我们预计将成为一个10万亿美元的经济体，人均收入接近6700美元。
If India’s route is not correct, it will lose all its competitive advantages, fall into a trap forever, and then enter a period of development stagnation.
如果印度的路线不正确，它将失去所有的竞争优势，永远陷入陷阱，然后进入一段发展停滞的时期。
印度网友迪帕克•米什拉的回答
Let’s first look at the basic situation of India:
我们先看看印度的基本情况：
Population: 1.4 billion, still growing rapidly; GDP: 10-year average of US $1.9 trillion; GDP per capita: US $9000 less than the world average; Integrity index: 0.675 (below average). Life expectancy: 64 years (an increase of three years in ten years), 12 years lower than the world average;
人口：14亿，仍在快速增长；国内生产总值：十年平均1.9万亿美元；人均国内生产总值：1900美元（比世界平均水平少9000美元）；廉洁指数：0.675（低于平均水平）。预期寿命：64岁（十年增加三年），比世界平均水平低12年；
Fertility: 2.5 births per woman (three times more than in developed countries); Soil fertility: reduce six mineral units every ten years; Ratio of abuse of government power to agenda: 1:1; Female abortion rate in rural areas: active and persistent, 445 per 100000 pregnant women; Global development index ranking: 136 (below average. Below 136 countries)
生育率：每名妇女生育2.5次，（比发达国家多3倍）；土壤肥力：每十年减少六个矿质单位；滥用政府权利与议程的比例：1:1；农村地区的女性堕胎率：活跃且持续存在，每10万个产妇中有445个；全球发展指数排名：136（低于平均水平。低于136个国家）
Innovation Index: higher than the average level, ranking 81st in the world; IQ: lower than the world average 86; GDP growth rate: average annual 7%.
创新指数：高于平均水平，位居世界第81位；智商：低于世界平均水平86；GDP增长率：年均7%。
A large proportion of developed economies are small economies that play an important role in world capital and trade activities – such as Singapore, Switzerland, Hong Kong, Luxembourg, Liechtenstein and so on.
发达经济体的一大部分是那些在世界资本和贸易活动中扮演重要角色的小型经济体——如新加坡、瑞士、香港、卢森堡、列支敦士登等。
Then Scandinavians, Canada, Australia and New Zealand have ample access to the resources shared by the United States.
然后有斯堪的纳维亚人、加拿大、澳大利亚、新西兰有充足的机会获得由美国分享的资源。
Followed by Israel and South Korea, who used their technological advantages to get tickets. These people used their narrow land surrounded by external challenges to stimulate their people.
紧随其后喝汤的是以色列和韩国，他们利用技术优势拿到了入场券，这些人利用他们被外部挑战包围的狭小土地来刺激他们的民众。
Finally, the colonial countries – Britain, France, Italy, the Netherlands, Belgium… It developed during the colonial era and has barely grown since.
最后是殖民地国家——英国、法国、意大利、荷兰、比利时…它在殖民时代发展起来，此后几乎没有增长。
India, on the other hand, was left in the corner. 90% of India’s problems are caused by overpopulation.
而印度却被丢弃在角落里不闻不问，印度90%的问题都是由于人口过多造成的。
India has everything, defense, institutions, research, multinational company participants, wealth, honor, technology, space research, labor force, culture and personality. India is a perfect combination of everything you see in the world, but it is very lacking.
印度拥有一切，国防、机构、研究、跨国公司参与者、财富、荣誉、技术、空间研究、劳动力、文化、个性，印度是你在这个世界上看到的所有东西的完美组合，但都非常欠缺。
But the only problem is overpopulation. In India, I don’t see any advantages other than population that can bring India back from a backward economy to the world average.
问题只在于人口过多。在印度，除了人口问题，我看不到其他任何优势能把印度从落后经济体拉回世界平均水平。
According to the standards of developed countries, it takes a long time for India to reach these indicators according to the standards of developed countries.
从社会倡导者的角度来看，发达国家的贫困水平很低，人类发展指标很高，按照这些标准，印度需要50年或更长时间才能达到发达国家的标准。
From the perspective of investors, developed countries are countries with advanced economic structure (supervision, capital acquisition, currency stability, macroeconomic strength) and technological infrastructure (communication, transportation, etc.). According to this standard, India will develop in about 20 years.
从投资者的角度来看，发达国家是一个拥有先进水平的经济结构（监管、资本获取、货币稳定、宏观经济实力）和技术基础设施（通讯、运输等）的国家。按照这个标准，印度将在大约20年内发展起来。
