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泰国人说给中国的启示:发展高端产业,避免中等收入陷阱

Amongst major SEA economies (Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand, Philippines, Vietnam), the title belongs to Thailand.

说到“衰落”的发达国家,在东南亚主要的“海洋经济体”(新加坡、马来西亚、印度尼西亚、泰国、菲律宾、越南)中,这个“桂冠”应当属于泰国。

We have looming demographics time bomb, and we got stuck in the middle income trap.I feel that Thai government should start giving incentives to families to have more babies and change the old age demographics,but nobody do that.

我们有人口结构老龄化这颗定时炸弹需要处理,而且迫在眉睫,多年前这让泰国陷入了中等收入陷阱而且至今未能摆脱。在我看来,泰国政府应该开始鼓励各个家庭多生孩子,以改变老年人口比例,优化人口结构,但没人这么做。

Thailand has invested quite well in retail like malls but they should invest more on universities too. Check the number of universities by countries and Thailand is way behind Vietnam and Phillipines. A good tertiary education will help them to achieve the target of industry 4.0 .We fail to ride the wave of the 4th Industrial Revolution.

旅游业的兴旺让泰国在购物中心等零售领域的产业发展地相当好,但他们更应该多地投资大学教育。看看其他国家大学的数量,泰国甚至远远落后于越南和菲律宾。良好的高等教育帮助他们实现了工业4.0的目标,但很遗憾,我们泰国没有把握好第四次工业革命的机遇。

Tourism should never be 20% of GDP, it’s risky. tourism as an industry that provides much-needed hard currency for our economy also came to a screeching halt. Our income inequality is also among the worst in the world.Now thais may say so should we shoo travellers away. Well, let’s says have the tourism but use those resources to invest in other high end services like IT just like Malaysia.

旅游业在泰国GDP中占比过高,这是有很大风险的。随着新冠疫情的蔓延,旅游业作为一个为泰国经济提供急需硬通货的行业也戛然而止,泰国也是世界上收入最不平等的国家之一,这让很多贫困人口的生活雪上加霜。在这个阶段泰国人也许会这样说:把旅客轰走!嗯,可是假设我们保有旅游产业,但像马来西亚一样将这些资源投入到其他高端服务领域怎么样?

You have a good expat population but mostly they are sort of lifestyle entrepreneurs. Try to create that ecosystem to bring those expats who will invest in ur software and startups. Your neighbouring nations like Vietnam and indonesia are building startups unicorns. And this is the age of startups unicorns ( companies with billion dollar valuations) .

泰国外籍人口质量很高,但他们大多是来这休养而非投资的企业家。泰国应该试着创造良好的营商环境,以吸引那些软件和初创公司的外国投资人。泰国的邻国越南和印尼正在鼓励引进和建立独角兽公司,现在可是独角兽创业公司(拥有数十亿美元估值)的时代。

We are also mired in political instability,But development and progress are dynamical. Thailand’s prospects may seem so bleak now, but hey, who knows what the future may hold? Maybe someday someone will come in and turn things around.

我们也陷入政治不稳定的状况,党争和军事政变频繁发生,但发展和进步都是动态的。泰国的前景现在可能看起来很暗淡,但是,谁知道未来可能会怎样呢?也许有一天会有人来扭转局面。

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文章名称:《泰国人说给中国的启示:发展高端产业,避免中等收入陷阱》
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