扒车喵日本是一个岛国，国内发展容易受到限制，这也是日本自始至终向外扩张的主要原因，在美版知乎Quora上，日本网友提问道：日本有希望成为一个超级大国吗？这引起各国网友的热议，专家和网友的纷纷撰文回答，他们论证结论都是：不能。
问题：日本会成为一个超级大国吗？
美国专家雷蒙德的回答
The answer is that Japan does not have the basic resources and conditions to become a superpower.
答案是，日本没有成为超级大国的基本资源和条件。
The term “superpower” was first proposed by William T. R. fox in 1944, when he listed the United States, the Soviet Union and the British Empire as superpowers.
“超级大国”一词最早由威廉·T·R·福克斯于1944年提出，当时，他将美国、苏联和大英帝国列为超级大国。
From a political point of view, a superpower is a national entity that can influence and dominate major events around the world, because it controls more economic and military resources than all other sovereign countries in the world.
从政治学的角度来看，超级大国是一个国家实体，可以影响和主导世界范围内的重大事件，因为它控制的经济和军事资源规模超过了世界上所有其他主权国家。
On a broader scale, I use the descriptive term “continental power”, which has little to do with modern definitions.
在更宽泛的衡量尺度上，我使用了描述性的“大陆强权”一词，这与现代的定义没有太大关系。
The oldest “continental power” is the Persian Empire, which controlled most of the civilized Middle East as early as the 5th century BC. Anyone must deal with Persians, which means dealing with a large country whose population and resources are completely beyond its ability.
最古老的“大陆强权”是波斯帝国，它早在公元前5世纪就控制了大部分步入文明的中东地区。任何人必须与波斯人打交道也就意味着与一个人口和资源完全超出其能力范围的大国打交道。
波斯帝国
China has always been a “continental power” in history. During this period, it was often in a unified state and effectively governed. In some of these periods, it was not necessarily dominant militarily or even aggressive, such as the Song Dynasty. Rome was also a continental power in its heyday. It was the Abbasid Caliph in the 8th century and the Mongolian Empire in the 13th century.
中国在历史上也一直是一个“大陆强权”，在此期间，他往往处于统一状态并得到有效治理。在其中一些时期，它不一定在军事上占主导地位，甚至不一定具有侵略性，比如宋朝。罗马在鼎盛时期也是一个大陆强权，8世纪是阿巴斯哈里发，13世纪是蒙古帝国。
During the Ming and Qing Dynasties, China was still a continental power, but according to Fox’s definition, it was not a real “superpower” because it had little interest in the world outside East Asia. At the same time, the Mughal Empire in India is a continental force, as is the Ottoman Empire in the Middle East.
在明朝和清朝时期，中国仍然是一个大陆强权，可按照福克斯的定义，它不是一个真正的“超级大国”，因为它对东亚以外的世界几乎没有兴趣。同时，印度的莫卧儿帝国是一个大陆势力，中东的奥斯曼帝国也是如此。
When Europeans developed marine tourism and commerce, Spain once became a maritime power under the Habsburg dynasty. It made full use of the natural resources of the Americas and the industrial and banking resources of Spain and the Netherlands, but failed to become a superpower due to the low efficiency of the government.
当欧洲人发展海洋旅游和商业时，西班牙在哈布斯堡王朝统治下一度成为一个海洋强权，它充分利用着美洲的自然资源以及西班牙和荷兰的工业和银行资源，但由于政府效率低下，未能成为超级大国。
The Habsburg family could not establish an efficient central government to stabilize their rule, mobilize their wealth and modernize and enrich Spain.
哈布斯堡家族无法成立一个高效的中央政府来稳定他们的统治，调动他们的财富，让西班牙实现现代化和富裕。
It was the British who finally came up with a plan to organize the land and property resources on all six inhabited continents into a functioning imperial state, and the sun never sets empire was born, which made them the first real “superpower” in the world in the 19th century.
正是英国人最终想出了一个方案，将所有六个有人居住的大陆上的土地和财产资源组织成一个正常运转的帝国国家，日不落帝国就此诞生，这使他们在19世纪成为世界上第一个真正的“超级大国”。
By 1865, the United States had gradually become a continental power, as did Russia under the Tsar at the end of the 19th century, which was part of the reason why European countries, mainly Germany, were paranoid about Russian modernization.
到1865年，美国逐渐成为一个大陆强国，沙皇统治下的俄罗斯在19世纪末同样如此，这也是欧洲国家，主要是德国，对俄罗斯现代化持偏执态度的部分原因。
By the 1930s, the continental powers were the United States, Britain, the Soviet Union and China. Nazi Germany and the Japanese Empire tried to achieve the status of continental power by conquering the necessary resources, conquering and colonizing neighboring countries and assimilating their population. Fascist ambitions failed. After World War II, there were only three “superpowers” described by William fox.
到了20世纪30年代，大陆强国是美国、英国、苏联和中国。纳粹德国和日本帝国都试图通过征服必要的资源、征服和殖民邻国并同化其人口来实现大陆强国地位。法西斯的野心失败了，二战结束后，世界上只剩下威廉·福克斯（William Fox）上面描述的三个“超级大国”。
According to the provisions for solving the problems after the Second World War, the United Nations was established. The war of aggression and colonization was legally illegal. The British Empire disintegrated in the 1940s and 1950s and the Soviet Union disintegrated in 1991. This makes the United States the only “superpower”. With a population of 330 million, it controls strong military power and financial hegemony.
根据解决第二次世界大战战后问题的条款，联合国成立了，侵略殖民战争在法理上是非法的，大英帝国在二十世纪四五十年代解体，苏联在1991年解体。这使得美国成为唯一的“超级大国”，它有3.3亿人口，掌控着强大的军事力量和金融霸权。
美国金融霸权的确立
From the perspective of population and resources, the only comparable countries are Russia, China, India and Brazil. Among them, only China is comparable in international politics. It has rich population, economic resources, military strength, nuclear arsenal and efficient government, which represent the necessary conditions of comprehensive national strength.
从人口和资源角度唯一可比拟的国家是俄罗斯、中国、印度和巴西，其中，只有中国在国际政治中具有可比性，他拥有丰富的人口、经济资源、军事力量、核武库和高效政府等代表综合国力等必要条件。
Among the countries that are obviously backward compared with the United States and China, once Russia recovers from the imbalance of its economic and political system after the disintegration of the Soviet Union, it will be able to become a superpower. This is a goal often put forward by the Putin government.
在目前与美国和中国相比明显落后的国家中，一旦俄罗斯从苏联解体后经济和政治体系的失调中恢复过来，它就有能力成为超级大国。这是普京政府经常提出的目标。
India and Brazil are potential superpowers, but the more reasonable goals are regional power status and solving long-term problems such as policies and corrupt governments. Germany and Japan are already major economic powers, but they do not directly control mainland resources.
印度和巴西是潜在的超级大国，但更合理的目标是地区大国地位，以及解决政策和腐败政府等长期问题。德国和日本已经是主要的经济大国，但没有直接控制大陆范围的资源。
Under the current international system, Europe or East Asia no longer has conquerable land, and people’s painful memories of the 1940s are still fresh, which makes the major powers carefully suppress Germany and Japan to avoid taking the road of bullying their neighbors.
在当前的国际体系下，欧洲或东亚不再有可征服的土地，而人们对20世纪40年代的惨痛记忆依然鲜活，这让各大国都谨慎地压制着德国和日本以避免走上对邻国霸凌的道路。
Among the other great powers often referred to as potential “superpowers”, Canada and Australia are large but have small populations. Indonesia and Mexico are large enough in theory, but there are huge problems in development, political unity, government efficiency and poverty.
在其他经常被称为潜在“超级大国”的大国中，加拿大和澳大利亚面积大但人口少。印尼和墨西哥在理论上足够大，但在发展、政治团结、政府效率和贫困方面存在巨大问题。
Generally speaking, as long as the current international system can be maintained, the world without “superpower” will be better. The United States, China, Russia and India are all subject to harmful nationalism because of their huge size, and their existence poses a threat to their neighbors.
总的来说，只要当前的国际体系能够维持，没有“超级大国”的世界会更好。美国、中国、俄罗斯和印度都受制于有害的民族主义，因为体量巨大，其存在就使得邻国感到威胁。
In addition, there is the threat of nuclear doomsday, which can easily destroy the whole earth and kill half of mankind in a few months or years. The internationalist vision of Franklin Roosevelt and Jawaharlal Nehru still looks like a better way to peace.
此外还有核末日的威胁，这很容易摧毁整个地球，在几个月或几年的时间里杀死一半的人类，富兰克林·罗斯福（Franklin Roosevelt）和贾瓦哈拉尔·尼赫鲁（Jawaharlal Nehru）等人的国际主义愿景看起来仍然是通往和平的更好道路。
日本网友Fuarez的回答
Is Japan a superpower now? No, now Japan is at best a global power.
日本现在是超级大国吗？不，现在的日本充其量是一个全球大国。
What makes a country a global power?
一个国家成为全球强国要具备哪些条件？
财富/wealth
军事实力/Military strength
软实力/soft power
Wealth: Japan is a very rich country, but Japan is still the third largest economy in the world, after the US and China, because of the aging population and the burst of the real estate bubble.
财富：日本是一个非常富裕的国家，但由于人口老龄化和房地产泡沫破裂，日本成为一个经济陷入停滞的国家，尽管如此，日本仍是世界上排名第三的经济体，仅次于美国和中国。
日本经济泡沫
Soft power: among the most widely recognized indexes, Japan ranks in the top 10. With the output of animation film and television industry, Japan’s ranking has increased in the past few years.
软实力：在最广泛认可的指数中，日本位列前十，随着动漫影视行业的输出，日本在过去几年的排名有所上升。
Japan is a member of the group of seven, which is composed of seven richest developed countries. The group of seven is the most influential country in the world.
日本是七国集团的成员国，七国集团由七个最富有的发达国家组成，七国集团是世界上最有影响力的国家。
Military: the Japanese army ranks eighth in the world. They do not often show their military strength, but from the perspective of military equipment, Japan has a very strong army, which makes Asian neighbors very vigilant.
军事：日本军队在世界上排名第八，他们并不常常展示他们的军事实力，但从军事装备上看，日本有一支非常强大的军队，这让亚洲邻国十分警惕。
Active personnel of Japan Self Defense Force: 247157 (2019)
日本自卫队现役人员：247157人（2019年）
63300 reserve personnel (2019)
后备人员63300人（2019年）
Japan is a country with a huge national foundation and / or structure, from which many consortia and interest companies have emerged, and is determined to plan and expand itself and its interests around the world.
日本是一个拥有庞大国家基础和/或结构的国家，从中产生了诸多的财团和利益公司，并决心在世界各地规划和扩大自身及其利益。
Japan has the world’s leading infrastructure, telecommunications, Internet, roads, public transport and banking, sound laws and people’s self-discipline.
日本拥有世界领先的基础设施，电信、互联网、道路、公共交通和银行业，法律健全，人民自律。
Back to this question, the question is not “does Japan want to become a superpower”, but “can Japan become a superpower?”
尽管如此，回到这个问题，问题不是“日本想成为超级大国吗”而是“日本能成为超级大国吗？”
The answer is uncertain, mainly because we can’t predict the future, we don’t know what may be the most important resource, and we don’t know how the future economic trend will affect Japan.
答案是不确定的，主要是因为我们无法预测未来，我们也不知道什么可能是最重要的资源，也不知道未来的经济趋势会对日本产生怎样的影响。
Japan remains a very strong player in Asia. In the past 30 years, Japanese pop culture has dominated almost the whole Asia Pacific region, and there is no sign of slowing down.
日本仍然是亚洲地区一个非常强大的参与者，在过去30年里，日本流行文化几乎主导了整个亚洲—太平洋地区，而且没有放缓的迹象。
So how can it become a superpower? Well, it already has economic and soft power. What it really needs is hard power. In other words, a lot of investment in the Japanese army. By investing in military, Japan can sign defense treaties with like-minded Asian countries to resist any threat they may face.
那么它怎么可能成为超级大国呢？嗯，它已经有了经济、软实力，它真正需要的只是硬实力。也就是说，对日本军队的大量投资。通过投资军事，日本可以与志同道合的亚洲国家签订防御条约，以抵御他们可能面临的任何威胁。
However, our current servant relationship with the United States actually puts us at a disadvantage in this regard. The United States is the defender of the order of World War II and has always opposed Japan’s military expansion, which conflicts with their own political interests.
但是我们目前与美国的仆从关系实际上让我们自己在这方面处于不利地位，美国是二战秩序的维护者，一贯反对日本的军事扩张，这与他们自己的政治利益相冲突。
美国驻日本军事基地
Without the suppression of China and the United States, Japan will become a strong competitor to the world power, but this day may never come.
如果没有中国和美国的压制，日本将成为世界大国的有力竞争者，但这一天可能永远也不会到来。
美国网友约瑟夫的回答
It has never been a superpower. It was not, is not and will not be. Becoming a superpower is not in Japan’s interests. As long as Japan’s military strength is limited and Japan is under the protection of the US security umbrella, Japan cannot be regarded as a superpower.
它从来都不是超级大国。过去不是，现在不是，将来也不会，成为超级大国也不符合日本的利益，只要日本的军事力量有限，日本处于美国安全保护伞的保护之下，日本就不能被视为超级大国。
A superpower should be a superpower in both area and population (there should be many other requirements, but these two are the most basic thresholds).
一个超级大国应该在面积和人口上都是超级大国（应该有很多其他要求，但这两个是最基本的门槛）。
Japan’s population is roughly sufficient, but its area is much smaller.
日本的人口大致足够，但面积要小得多。
If Japan won the Second World War and successfully controlled half of China, it would have a chance, but in today’s situation, it is basically impossible.
如果日本赢得了第二次世界大战并成功地控制了中国的一半，那么它就有机会了，但就今天的情况而言，基本不可能。
Explain again:
再解释一下：
The superpower should be big enough so that it can do something secretly, such as nuclear testing.
超级大国应该足够大，以便它可以秘密地做一些事情，例如：核试验。
Superpowers should have enough people to have enough human resources to work on farms, factories, laboratories and schools.
超级大国应该有足够的人口，以便有足够的人力资源在农场、工厂、实验室和学校工作。
There were two superpowers in the world, the Soviet Union and the United States. The Soviet Union was the largest country at that time, with a population of about 250 million (ranking fourth at that time). The population of the United States was about 400 million, ranking third in the world.
世界上曾经有两个超级大国，苏联和美国。苏联是当时最大的国家，人口约2.5亿（当时排名第四），美国的人口约为4亿，在世界上排名第三。
According to Wikipedia, “potential superpowers” include China, the European Union, Russia, India and Brazil, which are large in size and population.
维基百科称，“潜在超级大国”包括：中国、欧盟、俄罗斯、印度、巴西，它们的规模和人口都很大。
