扒车喵在美版知乎Quora上，一名日本网友提问道：日本还能像在二战中那样轻易打败中国吗？一名美国历史专家认为这个问题问题根本不成立，并结合中国二战历史发文给他上了一课。
日本现在能不能像二战时那样击败中国？
Many people think that in the Second World War, Japan occupied 26 provinces of China and more than 6 million square kilometers of land. They naturally think that Japan defeated China. Most people who hold this argument are supporters of “western historical revisionism”, or idiots, or both.
有不少人认为第二次世界大战中，日本侵占了中国26个省，足足六百余万平方公里的土地，便自然而然地认为日本打败了中国，持有这种论调的人，多是“西方历史修正主义”的拥趸，不然就是白痴，或者两者兼而有之。
Why do supporters of this fallacy not understand that if China is defeated, will China be a victorious country in the anti fascist war? Will you attend the founding members of the United Nations and the permanent members of the Security Council? Will China have today’s international status? Besides, facts speak louder than words. I can reproduce that history. You should know that the history in your Japanese textbooks is just what the Japanese government wants you to see.
这种谬论的支持者为什么不理解，如果中国被打败了，中国会是反法西斯战争胜利国吗？会列席联合国的创始国和安理会常任理事国吗？中国会有今天的国际地位吗？况且事实胜于雄辩，下面我可以帮你回忆一下那段历史。要知道你们日本教科书上的历史，只是日本政府希望你们看到的。
In 1931, after Japan occupied the northeast, the leadership in Tokyo hesitated on whether to expand the war against China, because it would invest huge military and national strength. In 1936, the leftist anti war officers attempted to launch a coup, which instead gave the Japanese Nazis an excuse, and the forces of Japanese moderates were quickly strangled. The discussion at the top of Japan directly changed from whether to carry out a full-scale war with China to how to launch a full-scale war against China, and even made a false statement: destroy China in three months.
1931年，在日本占领东北之后，东京的领导层对是否扩大对华战争方面犹豫不决，因为这将投入巨大的兵力和财力。1936年，左派反战军官发动政变未遂，这反而给予日本纳粹分子以借口，日本主和派势力很快被扼杀，日本高层的讨论直接从是否同中国进行全面战争转向如何对中国发动全面战争，甚至妄言：三个月灭亡中国。
At the initial stage of the war of aggression against China, the Japanese army headquarters tended to keep the theater in northern China for fear that the Soviet Union coveted the northeast, but the Japanese Navy insisted on marching into East China in order to preempt the influx of Chinese reinforcements into the north and achieve the purpose of dispersing Chinese forces. In the early stage of the war, although Japan repeatedly succeeded, with the extension of the front, the Japanese attack was completely in trouble. Only one Songhu battle lasted for three months, and the casualties of the Japanese army were far more than expected.
在侵华战争的最初阶段，由于担心苏联觊觎东北，日本陆军司令部倾向于将战区保持在中国北方，但日本海军坚持进军中国华东地区，以抢先中国增援部队涌入北方，达到分散中国兵力的目的。在战争前期，日本虽然屡屡得手，但随着战线的拉长，日军的进攻完全陷入了困境，仅仅一场淞沪会战，就持续了三个月，日军的伤亡也远超预期。
淞沪会战
Since the national government declared war on Japan in 1937, although the Chinese Army initially encountered a series of failures in coastal provinces, the situation began to turn since 1938, and the Chinese army began to win a major victory against the well-equipped Japanese army. Taierzhuang campaign (1938), Wanjialing campaign (1938), Kunlunguan / Southern Guangxi campaign (1939), Changsha first campaign (1939), Wuyuan campaign (1940), Changsha campaign (1941), Southern Henan campaign (1941) and Shanggao campaign (1941), The major confrontation between the Japanese army and the Chinese Army involving multiple divisions caused tens of thousands of casualties.
自1937年国民政府对日宣战以来，中国军队虽然最初在沿海省份遭遇了一系列失败，但自1938年起，形势开始有了转折，中国军队开始在对抗装备精良的日军时取得重大胜利。台儿庄战役（1938年）、万家岭战役（1938年）、昆仑关/桂南战役（1939年）、长沙第一次战役（1939年）、婺源战役（1940年）、长沙第二次战役（1941年）、豫南战役（1941年）、上高战役（1941年），仅以上几个例子，日军与中国军队进行的涉及多个师的重大交锋就造成了数万人伤亡。
Even if the Japanese army occupied the territory, due to the lack of manpower, Japan could not fully control these areas. Most of the Japanese troops are concentrated near the urban center, while in the surrounding countryside, guerrillas are active in combating Japanese aggressors. Japan once tried to establish a puppet government like the “puppet Manchukuo” to appease the local people. However, due to the wanton destruction and inhuman atrocities of Japanese Nazis and the patriotic feelings of ordinary Chinese, it is difficult to get the support of Chinese civilians.
即使日军占领了领土，但由于缺乏人力，日本也无法完全控制这些治下的地区。大部分日军集中驻扎在城市中心附近，而周围的农村，游击队正积极活动，打击日本侵略分子。日本曾试图建立“伪满洲国”那样的傀儡政府来安抚当地百姓，但由于日本纳粹分子肆无忌惮地破坏和灭绝人性的暴行，加上普通中国人多怀有爱国主义情怀，故很难得到中国平民的支持。
Another difficult problem faced by Japanese imperialism is China’s strategic depth. There are many mountains in the mainland, and there are few available roads or railways. Therefore, logistics support has become a major problem for the Japanese army. In addition, they are often ambushed. From the end of 1942 to the middle of 1944, the war entered a stalemate stage, and large-scale open warfare became less frequent. However, during this period, the Chinese army still achieved some major victories, such as the Third Battle of Changsha (1942) and the battle of Changde (1943).
日本帝国主义面对的另一个难题就是中国的战略纵深。大陆内地多山，几乎没有可用的公路或铁路，因此后勤保障成为日军的一大难题，此外，他们还经常遭到伏击。1942年末至1944年年中，战争进入了相持阶段，大规模公开交战变得不那么频繁。然而，在这段时间里，中国军队仍然取得了一些重大胜利，如第三次长沙战役（1942年）和常德战役（1943年）。
In the middle of 1944, the Japanese army tried to change the status quo by launching the “No. 1 operation plan”, which was the largest continuous battle since the Japanese army fought against China. It successfully occupied many cities in southern China, but the countryside was still its weak link. This allowed Chinese soldiers to slowly encroach on and wait for the opportunity to ambush the weak flank or rear forces in the face of the powerful Japanese army. In this battle alone, 100000 Japanese died (many died of diseases). Only four months later, the Japanese were defeated by the Chinese army in the battle of Western Hunan.
1944年中期，日军试图通过发动“一号作战计划”来改变现状，这是日军对华作战以来规模最大的持续战役，成功占领了中国南部的许多城市，但农村仍是其薄弱环节，这使得中国士兵在面对装备强大的日军时，可以先慢慢蚕食，伺机伏击较弱的侧翼或后方部队。仅在这次战役中，日军就有10万人死亡（许多人死于疾病），仅四个月后，日军就在湘西战役中被中国军队击溃。
Some people say that China’s victory actually depends on the assistance of the United States. Here I would like to disagree. Although the United States did provide supply and assistance to China from 1937 to 1945, the actual help was far from reaching the “victory turning point” considered by some people. Although China ranks fourth on the list of recipient countries, its total aid is only half of that of France, which was officially eliminated from the war in June 1940 because of its premature surrender.
有人说中国的胜利其实是仰仗美国的援助，在此我要提出不同意见。尽管美国在1937-1945年间确实向中国提供了供应和援助，但实际帮助远未达到一些人所认为的“胜利转折点”。尽管中国在受援国名单上排名第四，但援助总额仅为法国的一半，而法国因过早投降已于1940年6月正式从战争中被淘汰。
驼峰航线
From 1937 to 1944, Japan almost completely controlled the Western Pacific and China’s east coast ports, which made it impossible to ship directly to China. The only option left was to provide materials to China through Britain controlled India. However, after the Japanese army closed the Yunnan Myanmar highway, the Allies had to open a “Hump” route in the Himalayas to airlift war readiness materials. Although this was dangerous and limited the transportation capacity, they had no choice at that time. In 1944, when a large number of American supplies began to arrive in China, enough to equip multiple divisions, the situation of the war against Japan had turned sharply.
1937-1944年间，日本几乎完全控制了西太平洋以及中国的东海岸港口，这使得直接海运到中国完全不可能。剩下的唯一选择是通过英国控制的印度向中国提供物资，但在日本军队关闭了滇缅公路后，盟国不得不在喜马拉雅山开启“驼峰”航线，空运战备物资，虽然这样既危险又限制了运输能力，但在当时别无选择。1944年，当美国补给开始大量抵达中国，足以装备多个师时，对日战争的局势已经急剧转向。
At that time, China was poor, while Japan had strong ships and artillery. It’s hard to imagine that Japanese fascists surrendered after heavy casualties and were driven out of China. You call it victory? You can say that Japan won several wars in World War II, but if it defeated China, it is completely inconsistent with historical facts.
当时的中国一穷二白，而日本船坚炮利。难以想象日本法西斯在经过重大伤亡过后投降，接着被赶出中国，你竟然称之为胜利？你可以说日本在二战中取得了几场战争的胜利，但如果说击败了中国，那完全不符合史实。
From your question, in addition to the misunderstanding of history, I also read that you Japanese still have the ambition to wage war, and the target of the war is today’s China.
从你的问题中，除了对历史的误解，我还读到你们日本人仍然抱有发动战争的野心，而且战争对象竟然是今日的中国。
The world’s second largest economic and military power with nuclear weapons?
一个拥有核武器的世界第二大经济、军事强国？
Moreover, according to the Japanese Constitution, Japan is now restricted from developing offensive weapons, and the army can only be used for self-defense. Your defense right is now in the hands of the United States!
况且根据《日本宪法》规定，现在的日本被限制发展进攻性武器，军队只能用以自卫，你们的防御权现在在美国的手中！
I hope you can think with normal rather than emotional thinking. Don’t dream. How can Japan, a country with only one tenth of China’s population, win a war under the condition that its military, economy and resources are completely crushed!
希望你能以正常而非情绪化的思维思考，别做梦了，日本，一个只有中国十分之一人口的国家，如何能够在军事、经济、资源被全面碾压的条件下，打赢一场战争！
