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美国网友热议:未来世界制造业中心还会是中国吗?

近年来中国制造业向越南等东南亚地区转移的现象引发关注,同时,2020年疫情暴发后,欧美等发达国家呼吁制造业回流的声音高涨,这引发了国人的焦虑情绪——越南、印度是否会取代中国成为新的世界工厂?在美版知乎Quora上,美国网友提问道:到了2030年,世界制造业中心还会是中国吗?这个问题引起各国专家网友的热议,我们看看他们的观点。

美国网友:预测一下到2030年,世界制造业中心还会是中国吗?

问题:到2030年世界制造业中心还会是中国吗?

美国网友:预测一下到2030年,世界制造业中心还会是中国吗?

英国网友理查德•肖的回答

Of course, in fact, due to the following five reasons, China has no choice but to become the world manufacturing center.

当然,事实上,由于以下这五大原因,中国别无选择,只能成为世界制造业中心。

1: 对饥饿的恐惧/Fear of hunger

China has 22% of the world's population, but only 7% of the world's arable land. Therefore, if China wants food independence, it has no choice but to focus on the construction of farmland and water conservancy, the cultivation of high-quality seed varieties, and the production of chemical fertilizers and pesticides.

中国人口占世界人口的22%,但拥有的耕地仅占世界的7%。因此,如果中国想要粮食独立,就别无选择,只能专注于农田水利建设、优质种子品种培育、化肥和农药的生产。

There is a strong demand for reinforced concrete in irrigation and water conservancy projects, and China's cement and steel industries have risen one after another; Good seed varieties need seed cultivation and processing industry; Chemical fertilizer and pesticide need chemical industry. In addition, if China wants to improve agricultural production efficiency, it must incorporate agricultural mechanization into the key agricultural development strategy, which means that China needs the machinery industry.

农田水利项目的钢筋混凝土需求旺盛,中国的水泥和钢铁行业纷纷崛起;优良的种子品种需要种子培育和加工业;化肥和农药需要化学工业。此外,如果中国想提高农业生产效率,就必须将农业机械化纳入农业重点发展战略,这意味着中国需要机械工业。

美国网友:预测一下到2030年,世界制造业中心还会是中国吗?

It can be said that if agriculture is not strongly supported by relevant industries, the survival of many Chinese people may become a problem.

可以说,如果农业得不到相关产业的大力支持,现在可能许多中国人的生存都成问题。

How much effort has China made to eradicate hunger?

中国为了消除饥饿付出了多大努力?

1) China produces half of the world's steel and cement;

1) 中国生产了世界一半的钢铁和水泥;

2) China has become a large country of hybrid rice. The planting area of hybrid rice in China is 17million hectares, accounting for more than 50% of the total rice area in China. The average yield of rice in China is about 6.4 tons / ha, and that of hybrid rice is about 7.5 tons / ha;

2) 中国已成为杂交水稻大国,中国杂交水稻种植面积1700万公顷,占中国水稻总面积的50%以上。全国水稻平均产量约为6.4吨/公顷,杂交水稻约为7.5吨/公顷;

3) China has become a major exporter of chemical fertilizers and pesticides;

3) 中国已成为化肥和农药的主要出口国;

4) Among the three main food crops, wheat has the highest degree of mechanized cultivation and harvest, with the proportion of mechanized cultivation, mechanical sowing and mechanical harvest reaching 94.5%, 82% and 92.2% respectively.

4) 在三种主要粮食作物中,小麦的机械化耕作和收获程度最高,机械化耕作、机械播种和机械收获的比例分别达到94.5%、82%和92.2%。

2: 战争的威胁/The threat of war

China has a deep-rooted fear of insufficient firepower in the war. Therefore, China needs a completely independent military industry, from the melting of minerals to various ships and fighters. They can manufacture all their main combat equipment by themselves, so that China will no longer be threatened by blockade. At the same time, this means that China needs a completely independent heavy industry.

中国对战争中的火力不足有着根深蒂固的恐惧,因此中国需要完全独立的军事工业,从矿物熔化到各种舰船战机,他们可以自行制造其所有主要作战装备,这样中国就不会再被封锁威胁,同时,这意味着中国需要完全独立的重工业。

In the 1960s and 1970s, China established 3000 militia divisions, which needed to be prepared not only to fight the Soviet Union but also the United States. Therefore, China's heavy industry and military industry must provide them with sufficient equipment. In 2018, the total launch tonnage of the Chinese navy was 200000 tons, which means that China can build a French Navy every year.

六七十年代,中国建立了3000个民兵师,不仅需要准备与苏联作战,还准备与美国作战,因此中国重工业和军事工业必须为他们提供足够的装备。2018年,中国海军总发射吨位为20万吨,这意味着中国每年可以新建造一支法国海军。

This is why China claims that it will never be the first to use nuclear weapons, never use nuclear weapons against non nuclear states, nor threaten to use nuclear weapons against non nuclear states. China is full of confidence in its conventional forces. Therefore, nuclear forces are mainly strategic deterrence weapons against major powers for China.

这就是为什么中国宣称,中国绝不首先使用核武器,绝不对无核国家使用核武器,也绝不威胁对无核国家使用核武器,中国对其常规力量充满信心,因此核力量对中国来说主要是针对大国的战略性威慑武器。

3: 禁运与封锁/Embargo and blockade

Since the founding of the people's Republic of China, the West has imposed a high-tech blockade on China. In fact, the high-tech blockade against China is more stringent than the high-tech blockade against the Soviet Union at the beginning (before 1973). Therefore, China must start again. This means that China must resume the path of industrial revolution. It is also because of the Western blockade, China has become the only country in the world where all industries are listed in the United Nations Industrial Classification. For example, the US embargo on Huawei is forcing China to develop its semiconductor industry and related software industry.

从中华人民共和国成立之日起,西方就对中国实行高科技封锁,事实上,对中国的高科技封锁比一开始(1973年之前)对苏联的高科技封锁更为严格,因此中国必须重新开始,这意味着中国必须重新走工业革命的道路,也正是由于西方的封锁,中国成为世界上唯一一个所有行业都被列入联合国产业分类表的国家,例如:美国对华为的封锁正迫使中国发展其半导体产业和相关软件产业。

4: 减轻黄河的威胁/the threat of the Yellow River

The Yellow River is the mother river of China. On the other hand, the Yellow river always overflows due to excessive sediment in the water, which has caused harm to the Chinese people. The Yellow River is always blocked by sediment. In the past few thousand years, floods have often occurred. But now, with the development of industry, on the one hand, industry can feed agriculture, so the land in the upper reaches can be fallow and restored to grassland or forest, so as to reduce soil erosion and reduce the sediment of the Yellow River. On the other hand, with the development of industry, the water of the Yellow River has been used up by the downstream industries, and the floods have disappeared, thus absurdly solving the problems that have plagued China for thousands of years.

黄河是中国的母亲河,另一方面,黄河由于水中泥沙过多总是造成泛滥而对中国人造成了伤害,黄河河道总是被泥沙堵塞,在过去的几千年里,洪水经常发生。但现在,随着工业的发展,一方面工业可以反哺农业,因此上游的土地可以休耕并恢复为草地或森林,从而减少水土流失,从而减少黄河泥沙。另一方面,随着工业的发展,黄河的水被下游的工业用光了,洪水消失了,从而荒谬地解决了困扰中国几千年的问题。

5: 维护社会稳定/Maintain social stability

In China, there are 8million college graduates every year, 40% of whom are majoring in science, technology, engineering and Mathematics (stem). College students are trained as reserve talents and successors of the country, so they receive not only professional education, but also political education, philosophy education, basic political economy education and basic military education.

在中国,每年有800万大学毕业生,其中40%的专业是科学、技术、工程和数学(STEM)。大学生被培养为国家的后备人才和接班人,因此他们不仅接受专业教育,还接受政治教育、哲学教育、基础政治经济学教育和基础军事教育。

If college graduates can't find enough good jobs, they will bring great pressure to the society and the authorities. Therefore, a government official once said: "whenever I realize that millions of college students graduate every year, I can't sleep.", In order to promote the country's stable development, China must provide as many employment opportunities as possible, especially in the industrial field.

如果大学毕业生找不到足够的好工作,他们将为社会和当局带来不小的压力,因此,一位政府官员曾说:“每当我意识到每年有数百万大学生毕业时,我就无法入睡。”,为了推进国家稳定发展,中国必须尽可能多地提供就业机会,尤其是在工业领域。

As far as China is concerned, it is not the subjective decision of the Chinese to become (the world manufacturing center) or not to become (the world manufacturing center). These five issues will objectively force China to become the world manufacturing center. Although China has not deliberately become the world manufacturing center, it has always followed the behavior that conforms to the laws of nature.

对于中国来说,成为(世界制造中心)还是不成为(世界制造中心), 不是中国人主观决定的,这五个问题客观上会迫使中国成为世界制造中心,尽管中国并没有刻意成为世界制造中心,而是一直遵循符合自然规律的行为。

More importantly, China is the only country with clean hands that has become the manufacturing center of the world. Because China has never enslaved African blacks or slaughtered North American Indians in history, China is a country of high morality. The third world will regard China as one of them and an example for them.

更重要的是,中国是唯一一个双手干净却成为世界制造业中心的国家,因为中国在历史上没有奴役过非洲黑人,也没有屠杀过北美印第安人,所以中国是道德高尚的国家,那么第三世界将视中国为他们中的一员,也是他们的榜样。

Therefore, the Chinese model prefers sweat to blood, so the Chinese model is more peaceful and replicable, so it will be more lasting. Although China's status as the world manufacturing center may gradually decline, the successor will still follow the Chinese Paradigm and do better.

故而,中国模式更喜欢汗水而不是鲜血,所以中国模式更和平,更具可复制性,那么它将更持久。尽管中国本身作为世界制造业中心的地位可能将逐渐下降,但继承者将仍然遵循中国范式从而做得更好。

By the way, any country that wants to replace China as the world manufacturing center should surpass China in at least two factors: one is the number of graduates of stem engineering universities, and the other is the power generation capacity.

顺便说一句:任何一个想要取代中国成为世界制造中心的国家,至少应该在两个要素上超过中国:一是STEM工科类大学毕业生人数,二是发电能力。

So back to the topic, will any country have more power generation than China in 2030?

那么回到话题上来,2030年有哪个国家的发电量会超过中国吗?

In 2021, China's annual power generation will reach 8112.2 billion kwh, accounting for more than 25% of the world's total power generation.

2021年,中国年发电量达到81122亿千瓦时,占世界总发电量的25%以上。


美国网友:预测一下到2030年,世界制造业中心还会是中国吗?

专家雷•古尔丹的回答

Yes, but it will be fundamentally different. So far, China's economic development has been based on two prerequisites:

是的,但它将与现在有着根本的不同。迄今为止,中国的经济发展基于两大前提:

1. Consumption economy: economic growth is mainly based on consumption expenditure. This peaked in 1999, when U.S. consumer spending peaked, but it was slowing steadily until 2008, and then collapsed that year. However, Western economies will continue to be the leading consumer economies, and they will continue to buy Chinese goods.

1、消费经济,经济增长以消费支出为主。这在1999年达到顶峰,当时美国消费者支出达到顶峰,但在2008年之前一直在稳步放缓,然后在那一年崩溃,然而西方经济体将继续是领先的消费经济体,他们将继续购买中国商品。

2. The energy costs of coal and other fossil fuels remain low.

2、煤炭和其他化石燃料的能源成本维持在较低水平。

First, make two things clear:

首先明确两件事:

1. I don't think the consumer economy will return to its former state, because the global economy is undergoing fundamental changes. The Federal Reserve (FED) and the Chinese government have basically been trying to revive western consumer spending. However, due to political factors and global warming, the global economy is entering a long-term period of declining birth rate and changing human migration patterns. The consumer economy will no longer exist as the Federal Reserve and US economic observers believe. Beijing recognizes that the hot consumer economy in the West has basically become history, which is why it tries to encourage domestic consumer spending to reduce its dependence on manufacturing.

1、我不认为消费经济会回到以前的样子,因为全球经济正在发生根本性的变化。美联储(Fed)和中国政府基本上一直在试图通过重振西方消费者支出,然而,由于政治因素和全球变暖,全球经济正进入一个长期的出生率下降和人类移民模式变化的时期。消费经济将不再像美联储和美国经济观察家认为的那样存在,北京认识到西方火热的消费经济基本上已经成为历史,这就是为什么它试图鼓励国内的消费支出,以减少对制造业的依赖。

2. In terms of energy cost, we are at a critical point. In 20-30 years, we will usher in a new situation: new pollution-free energy, mainly from solar energy.

2、在能源成本方面,我们正处于临界点,在20-30年内,我们将迎来一个新局面:新的无污染能源,主要来自太阳能。

This brings us back to the original question: will China still be the manufacturing center of the world in 2030.

这让我们回到了最初的问题:2030年,中国是否仍将是世界制造业中心。

My answer is yes for two reasons:

我的回答是肯定的,有两个原因:

1. All the major manufacturing supply chains are in China, which becomes more and more important when the manufacturer's inventory cost in the manufacturing industry is close to zero. Look at the manufacturing industries centered in Shenzhen, Zhengzhou and Chengdu. They are all built around the iPhone manufacturing industry. Twenty years ago, this scale of manufacturing could not be achieved anywhere in the world, but Foxconn and apple made this model possible. Their supply chains and a large number of labor forces are concentrated there.

1、所有主要的制造业供应链都在中国,当制造商在制造业中的库存成本接近于零时,这一点变得越来越重要。看看以深圳、郑州和成都为中心的制造业,它们都是围绕iPhone制造业建立起来的。20年前,这种规模的制造业在世界任何地方都不可能实现,但富士康和苹果让这种模式实现了,它们的供应链和大量劳动力都集中在那里。

2. Within a decade, as more Chinese power grids shift to solar, wind and nuclear power, China will begin to provide free electricity and energy to major manufacturers. New supply chain parks will be formed around these free energy networks.

2、十年内,随着更多中国电网转向太阳能、风能和核能,中国将开始向主要制造商提供免费电力和能源。围绕这些自由能源网将形成新的供应链园区。

As China turns to a free energy economy, more investment funds will be attracted to China, thus absorbing the energy of other economies. At the same time, China will play an important role in developing a new economy formed around free energy.

随着中国转向自由能源经济,更多的投资资金将被吸引到中国,从而吸走其他经济体的能源,同时,中国将在发展围绕自由能源形成的新经济方面发挥重要作用。

The lesson for the United States is clear: the U.S. government should strive to build a free energy economy, not just for manufacturing, but for all Americans.

给美国的教训是明确的:美国政府应该努力建设一个自由能源经济,不仅仅是为了制造业,而是为了所有美国人。

Here is another lesson: hoarding capital is becoming less and less important. As hoarding capital becomes less and less important, Wall Street will have less and less influence. As wall street becomes less and less important, fewer and fewer of the best and brightest people will choose Wall Street.

这里还有另一个教训:囤积资本正变得越来越不重要。随着囤积资本变得越来越不重要,华尔街的影响力将越来越小,随着华尔街变得越来越不重要,越来越少的最优秀和最聪明的人会选择华尔街。


美国网友:预测一下到2030年,世界制造业中心还会是中国吗?

美国企业家乔•菲利普的回答

First, allow me to quote the latest data about the current situation:

首先,请允许我引用有关当前状况的最新数据:

美国网友:预测一下到2030年,世界制造业中心还会是中国吗?

This is an image of the output of top manufacturers, which is drawn based on the added value of manufacturing.

这是一幅关于顶级制造商产量的图像,它基于制造业附加值绘制的。

(Manufacturing added value is the added value of a country's manufacturing industry. Therefore, for example, the manufacturing of iPhone only includes the manufacturing of iPhone in China, which obviously excludes the value of chip manufacturing, display and other products.)

(制造业附加值是一个国家制造业的附加值。因此,例如,在iPhone的制造中,只包括在中国为iPhone所做的制造,这显然排除了芯片制造、显示器等产品的价值。)

China is consolidating its position as the world's largest manufacturer.

中国正在巩固其世界最大制造商的地位。

美国网友:预测一下到2030年,世界制造业中心还会是中国吗?

China will retain its status as a manufacturing center because:

中国将保留制造中心的地位,因为:

1. Talent: by 2030, China will still have a huge labor force, and its skills and education level will be much higher than any other country at a similar level of development. China has a high enrollment rate in higher education. These labors are quite cheap for their educational level.

1、人才:到2030年,中国仍将拥有庞大的劳动力,其技能和受教育程度将远远高于任何一个处于类似发展水平的国家。中国的高等教育入学率很高。这些劳动力对于他们的教育水平来说相当便宜。

2. Infrastructure: China already has world-class infrastructure and will continue to invest in it. On its east coast, the level of infrastructure is close to or even higher than that of western countries.

2、基础设施:中国已经拥有世界一流的基础设施,并将继续在这方面进行投资。在其东海岸,基础设施水平接近甚至超过了西方国家。

3. Investment (Overseas): China has huge foreign exchange reserves. At present, it mainly invests in treasury bills and other low-yield investment products. It has now begun to use its capital for global infrastructure investment, which helps Chinese enterprises obtain product contracts, including cranes, steel, cement, capital products, etc. Basically, this helps to create markets and ensure that Chinese enterprises can enter.

3、投资(海外):中国拥有巨额外汇储备,目前主要投资于国库券等低收益投资产品。它现在开始将资本用于全球基础设施投资,这有助于中国企业获得产品合同,包括起重机、钢铁、水泥、资本产品等。基本上,这有助于创造市场,并确保中国企业能够进入。

4. Location: China is at the center of the global supply chain. With the increasing spread of low value-added manufacturing to Southeast Asian countries, China will continue to maintain this central position in the next 10 years.

4、位置:中国处于全球供应链的中心,随着低附加值制造业越来越多地扩散到东南亚国家,中国将在未来10年内继续保持这种中心地位。

5. Upgrading the value chain: China has great potential in manufacturing more complex and valuable products, such as aircraft, medical equipment, chips, liquid crystal displays, robots, liquefied natural gas carriers, etc. At present, China is located in the middle and lower part of the value chain and produces relatively cheap bulk products. Therefore, although the price of a Boeing aircraft will reach 100million US dollars, China must produce a record 500000 metric tons of steel in order to produce the value of a Boeing aircraft.

5、提升价值链:中国在制造飞机、医疗设备、芯片、液晶显示器、机器人、液化天然气运输船等更复杂、更具价值的产品方面具有巨大潜力。目前,中国位于价值链的中下部,生产相当便宜的大宗产品。因此,虽然一架波音飞机的售价将达到1亿美元,但中国必须生产创纪录的50万公吨钢材,才能制造出一架波音飞机的价值。

The value of steel is 500000 metric tons, which is basically equivalent to the value of a 100-200 metric tons jet aircraft. Therefore, if the above chart actually takes into account the weight of finished products or other factors, China can also account for nearly half of the world's manufacturing industry.

钢材价值50万公吨,基本相当于一架100-200公吨的喷气式飞机的价值。因此,如果上面的图表实际考虑到制成品的重量或其他因素,那么中国也可以占据世界制造业的近一半。

Lack of a viable competitor: look at all countries and their shares. China accounted for 23% and the United States 17%. However, even the most optimistic forecast for us manufacturing growth will be 2%. The United States itself will begin to face competition in the field of high value-added, and low value-added products will turn to Southeast Asia to a large extent.

缺乏一个可行的竞争对手:看看所有国家的份额。中国占23%,美国占17%。但是,即使是对美国制造业增长最乐观的预测也将是2%。而美国本身将开始在高附加值领域面临竞争,低附加值的产品将在很大程度上转向东南亚。

Next, Japan, Germany and South Korea, which have serious population problems, have entered the high-end market and will face competition from China in the next few years. Other countries with a shareholding ratio of about 2% are far behind. Even if it exceeds 10%, it will be a great achievement. In addition, most countries are developed countries with limited growth. The only countries with room for growth are Indonesia, Mexico and India.

接下来是日本、德国和韩国,这些国家都有严重的人口问题,已经进入高端市场,在未来几年将面临来自中国的竞争。其他持股比例在2%左右的国家远远落后,即使超过10%,也将是一个巨大的成就。除此之外,大多数国家还是发达国家,增长幅度有限。唯一有增长空间的是印度尼西亚、墨西哥和印度。

Trend line: China has entered the higher part of the value ladder. By 2030, we are likely to fly in Chinese made jet aircraft. China has active projects to upgrade the value chain and manufacture more and more complex products. China's shipbuilding industry has begun to manufacture LNG carriers, cruise ships and other most complex and expensive ships. China's semiconductor and electronic industries are developing at an alarming rate. I think China's progress in the value chain is sustained in all areas, although at different pace.

趋势线:中国已经进入了价值阶梯的高阶部分,到2030年,我们很可能会乘坐中国制造的喷气式飞机飞行。中国有积极的项目来提升价值链,制造越来越复杂的产品。中国造船业已经开始制造液化天然气运输船、邮轮等最复杂、最昂贵的船舶。中国的半导体和电子产业正以惊人的速度发展。我认为中国在价值链上的进步在各个领域都是持续的,尽管步伐不同。

8. Policy / government support: the Chinese government, bureaucrats and banks are very good at implementing policies and coordinating affairs. Today, no country can offer such preferential treatment in the field of shipbuilding as China. Here, Chinese banks are supporting Chinese leasing companies and shipowners with extremely low-cost credit in order to place orders with Chinese shipyards to manufacture extremely complex ships. The scale is incredible.

8、政策/政府支持:中国政府、官僚机构、银行非常善于协同执行政策,协调事务。今天,没有一个国家能像中国在船舶制造领域提供那样的优惠。在这里,中国的银行正以极其低廉的信贷支持中国的租赁公司和船东,以便向中国造船厂下订单,制造极其复杂的船舶。规模之大令人难以置信。

9. Market / consumption: China has its own huge market, which gives it the ability that other countries do not have.

9、市场/消费:中国有自己巨大的市场,这让它具备其他国家所不具备的能力。

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