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美国网友:如果美国突然停掉所有中国的商品和服务会有什么后果?

美国通货膨胀率达到了过去40年来创纪录的最高水平,面对国内的经济问题,白宫政府正在软化针对中国的言论,美国贸易代表称不想发生与中国贸易脱钩,并正在努力重构商业关系,在美版知乎Quora上,美国网友提问道:如果美国突然停掉所有中国的商品和服务会有什么后果?这引起各国网友的围观和热议,我们看看他们的观点。

美国网友:如果美国突然停掉所有中国的商品和服务会有什么后果?

问题:如果美国突然停掉所有中国的商品和服务会有什么后果?

美国网友:如果美国突然停掉所有中国的商品和服务会有什么后果?

美国专家戴维•安耐特的回答

According to Chinese official data, China’s total import and export volume increased by 29.2% in the first quarter of 2021, reaching 8470 billion yuan (about US $1290 billion).

中国官方数据显示,中国的进出口总额在2021的第一季度增长了29.2%,达到8兆4700亿元(约合1兆2900亿美元)。

According to the data released by the General Administration of Customs (GAC), exports increased by 38.7% year-on-year and imports increased by 19.3% in RMB. At the same time, according to the data of the General Administration of customs, during this period, the association of Southeast Asian Nations remains China’s largest trading partner, followed by the European Union and the United States. “

根据中国海关总署(GAC)发布的数据,本季度出口同比增长38.7%,进口以人民币计算增长19.3%。与此同时,海关总署的数据显示,在此期间,东南亚国家联盟仍然是中国最大的贸易伙伴,其次是欧盟和美国。”

Based on the report of Xinhua news agency, let’s take another look at this problem. If a country wants to, they can make such an attempt regardless of the consequences, but they will soon find that the international economy is so closely linked that purposeful destruction of the global supply chain does not seem as easy as they think.

在新华社报道的基础上,我们再来看看这个问题。如果一个国家愿意,他们可以不计后果做出这样的尝试,但他们很快就会发现,国际经济已经如此紧密地联系在一起,有目的地破坏全球供应链看起来不像他们想象的那么容易。

China has a large number of world leading manufacturers and exporters. Chinese manufacturers and traders play an important role in strengthening the supply chain and ensuring the timely supply of many products.

中国有着数量众多的世界领先的制造商和出口商,中国的生产商和贸易商在加强供应链和确保许多产品及时供给方面都发挥着重要作用。

Chinese companies have effectively cut costs in their production lines, logistics services and maintaining stable supply for all related enterprises.

中国公司在各自的生产线、物流服务和为所有与之相关的企业保持稳定的供应方面非常有效地削减了成本。

If a country chooses to advance an agenda and block trade relations with China, it will have a serious impact on them. Even if it does so unintentionally, Chinese factories operate 24 hours a day, day after day, with only some pauses during the Spring Festival.

如果一个国家选择推进一项议程,阻止与中国的贸易关系,这将给他们带来严重危害,即使是无意中这样做,要知道中国的工厂每天24小时不间断地运转,日复一日,只有在春节期间有一些停顿,为世界提供必需品。

Many ports on China’s southern, southeastern, Eastern and northeastern coastlines operate at or near full capacity most of the time. China’s railway network and roads enable manufacturers to transport large quantities of goods and materials more easily and efficiently.

中国位于南部、东南部、东部和东北部海岸线的众多港口在大多数时候都在满负荷或接近满负荷运行,中国的铁路网和公路使制造商能够更轻松、更高效地运送大量的货物和物资。

The Chinese government has drawn up a road map to bring convenience to the manufacturing industry, logistics industry and commercial service industry. The construction of factories requires good roads, reliable energy, sufficient water resources and unbreakable supply chain. The efforts and achievements of the Chinese government in this regard can not be copied.

中国政府制定了路线图,为制造业、物流业和商业服务业带来便利,建设工厂需要良好的道路、可靠的能源、充足的水资源和牢不可破的供应链,中国政府在这方面的努力和成就是不可复制的。

Central and local governments do their best to ensure the smooth operation of manufacturers and logistics service companies.

中央和地方政府尽其所能确保制造商和物流服务公司的运营能够顺利进行。

China has a vast territory, a large population and a vibrant economy. No country can maintain such a strong momentum of manufacturing development. Some people may say that the United States or European countries have the ability to surpass China and become a manufacturing power, but the window of opportunity has been closed.

中国幅员辽阔,人口众多,经济充满活力,没有哪个国家能让制造业保持如此强劲的发展势头。有人可能会说,美国或欧洲国家有能力超越中国,成为制造业强国,但机会之窗已经关闭。

The challenges faced by manufacturers in the United States and Europe are enormous. Land and labor costs in the United States and Europe are very high. Entrepreneurs must also consider high tax rates, strict business and environmental regulations, and the difficulties of registration and licensing. Tesla’s German factory is a lesson.

美国和欧洲制造商面临的挑战是巨大的,美国和欧洲的土地和劳动力成本非常高,企业家还必须考虑到高税率、严格的商业和环境法规、注册和获得许可证的困难,特斯拉德国工厂就是一个教训。

Developing countries pay so much attention to boosting consumption that they increasingly rely on Chinese manufacturers to maintain an overall low inflation rate. Chinese exporters are very successful. Without Chinese imports, the cost of daily living of people in Europe, America and even the world will rise sharply.

发展中国家如此注重提振消费,以至于它们越来越依赖中国制造商来保持总体较低的通胀率,中国的出口商非常成功,如果没有中国的进口,欧美乃至世界各国人民的日常生活成本将大幅上升。

In addition, most of the main raw materials and parts of many products, including those manufactured in the United States or other developed countries, come from China. Rare earths used in mobile devices, smart phones, electronic devices and electric vehicles are just an example.

此外,许多产品,包括在美国或其他发达国家制造的产品,大部分的主要原料和零件来自中国,用于移动设备、智能手机、电子设备和电动汽车的稀土只是一个例子。

Therefore, restricting China’s development by banning China’s imports will kill itself. During the 2019 New Coronavirus epidemic, China’s manufacturers and exporters were not affected too much. In fact, they became stronger and their resilience remained a model of success.

因此,通过禁止中国进口来限制中国的发展将使其自取灭亡。在2019新型冠状病毒疾病流行期间,中国的制造商和出口商并未受到太大的影响,事实上,他们变得更加强大,他们的韧性仍然是成功的典范。


美国网友:如果美国突然停掉所有中国的商品和服务会有什么后果?

德国网友兰宁•罗瑟的回答

1. decades ago, the United States banned the sale of weapons to China, forcing China to research and develop independently. Now, China can produce most of its own military equipment and has become the third largest arms exporter in the world.

1.几十年前,美国禁止向中国出售武器,迫使中国独立研发,现在,中国可以自行生产大部分军事装备,并已成为世界第三大武器出口国。

2. The United States banned Chinese astronauts from reaching the international space station. Now, China has realized manned spaceflight and began to build its own space station.

2.美国禁止中国宇航员到达国际空间站,现在,中国已经实现了载人航天,并开始建造自己的空间站。

Now, China has made it clear that all countries in the world, including the United States, are welcome to participate in China’s space station construction plan, and China has successfully sent three astronauts to China’s own Tiangong space station.

现在,中国已经明确表示,欢迎包括美国在内的世界各国参与中国的空间站建设计划,而且中国已经成功地将三名宇航员送往中国自己的天宫空间站。

3. The United States banned American companies from exporting high-performance chips to China in order to stop building supercomputers in China. Now, the Chinese have developed their own high-performance chips, and taihuoguang supercomputer has been born.

3.美国禁止美国公司向中国出口高性能芯片,以停止在中国建造超级计算机,现在,中国人开发了自己的高性能芯片,太湖光超级计算机诞生了。

Similarly, if the United States prohibits all trade with China, they will force China to change its export-oriented economy. It will indeed affect China’s economy, but China will certainly adapt and change accordingly. The Chinese people should thank the United States for all its prohibitions on China. The United States has given you the opportunity to create your own path.

同样,如果美国禁止与中国的所有贸易,他们将迫使中国改变其出口导向型经济,它确实会影响中国的经济,但中国肯定会相应地适应和改变,中国人应该感谢美国对中国的所有禁令,美国给了你们创造自己道路的机会。


美国网友:如果美国突然停掉所有中国的商品和服务会有什么后果?

美国专家迈克•霍恩的回答

Nothing, but all goods will become more expensive. China makes half of the world’s things. Its largest trading partner is the European Union or ASEAN, not the United States. If the United States stops importing all goods and services, the following effects will occur:

没什么,只是一切商品都会变得更贵,中国制造了世界上一半的东西,它最大的贸易伙伴是欧盟或东盟,而不是美国,如果美国停止进口所有商品和服务,将会发生如下影响:

1. Once the United States achieves this goal, American consumers will be injured. For example, the manufacturing cost of iPhone is $6 in China and $60 in the United States. Therefore, the cost of living of American consumers will rise, from iPhone to plastic spoon, from toys to clothing, which will lead to substantial inflation.

1.美国一旦实现这一目标,受伤的将是美国消费者。例如iPhone的制造组装成本在中国为6美元,在美国为60美元,因此,美国消费者的生活成本将上升,从iPhone到塑料汤匙,从玩具到服装,这将导致大幅度的通货膨胀。

2. At the same time, all traders with a keen sense of smell in Europe, Asia and Latin America will carry out arbitrage – buy goods from China, affix their own labels, resell goods to the United States and make a profit of 20%. I believe our friends in Europe and Asia will be happy to have the opportunity to make this money easily.

2.与此同时,欧洲、亚洲和拉丁美洲所有嗅觉灵敏的贸易商都将进行套利——从中国购买商品,贴上自己的标签,将商品转售给美国,并获得20%的利润,我相信我们的欧洲和亚洲朋友会很高兴有机会轻松赚这个钱。

Imagine the construction of a global trade network. Now, the United States voluntarily closes one of its routes, which will increase the load of all other trade routes, and the transportation cost and time will increase linearly. The increase of additional cost of goods through indirect trade rather than direct trade always means the increase of additional cost.

想象构造一张全球贸易网络,现在,美国自愿关闭其中一条航线,这将增加所有其他贸易航线的负荷,运输成本和时间将直线增加,商品通过间接贸易途径而不是直接贸易途径总是意味着附加成本的提升。

You may think that removing China from the trade list will bring more jobs to the United States and “help” the U.S. economy. People with this logic are very wrong.

你可能会认为,将中国从贸易清单中剔除,将为美国带来更多就业机会,从而“帮助”美国经济。有这种逻辑的人就大错特错了。

Yes, such a move will bring manufacturing jobs back to the United States, but for all those who don’t work in manufacturing? American factory workers will no doubt be happy because their income and employment prospects are now better. But for others, their daily necessities (clothes, appliances, electronic products, furniture, tools, etc.) will be much more expensive and may be many times more expensive. Therefore, in fact, such a policy will increase the income of manufacturers and reduce the disposable income of other owners.

是的,这样的举措将把制造业岗位带回美国,但对于所有不在制造业工作的人来说呢?美国工厂工人无疑会感到高兴,因为他们的收入和就业前景现在更好了。但对其他人来说,他们的日常用品(衣服、电器、电子产品、家具、工具等)将要昂贵得多,可能要贵很多倍,因此,实际上,这样的政策将增加制造商的收入,同时减少其他所有人的可支配收入。

In fact, American enterprises will also begin to be affected, because China also produces many intermediate products, such as steel, building materials, building modules and so on. If these become more expensive, the costs of producing goods, maintaining equipment and building infrastructure will rise significantly, all of which means that the employment of American workers will stagnate and economic growth will slow.

事实上,美国企业也将开始受到影响,因为中国也生产很多中间产品,如钢铁、建筑材料、建筑模块等。如果这些都变得更昂贵,那么生产商品、维护设备和建设基础设施的成本将显著提高,所有这些都意味着美国工人的雇佣将停滞,经济增长将放缓。

Finally, from the perspective of China, if there is no American market as an export place, it means that the income of Chinese workers will be much less, their disposable income will also be reduced, and they will deal with it by buying less goods, especially those imported from the United States, because the goods made in the United States are more expensive. In addition, there are:

最后,从中国的角度来看,如果没有美国市场作为出口地,意味着中国工人的收入将少得多,他们的可支配收入也将减少,并将通过购买更少的商品来应对,尤其是那些从美国进口的商品,因为美国制造的商品更昂贵,除此之外,还有:

• Chinese manufacturers and suppliers need to find new customers / customers in other markets (mainly Asia, Africa and South America) to replace the US market.

• 中国制造商和供应商需要在其他市场(主要是亚洲、非洲和南美)寻找新客户/客户,以取代美国市场。

• as the economy gradually transforms from manufacturing to services, they also need to increase domestic consumption.

• 随着经济逐渐从制造业向服务业转型,他们还需要增加国内消费。

• low tech manufacturers may set up similar factories in other countries to take advantage of low-cost labor.

• 低技术制造商可能会去其他国家建立类似的工厂,以利用低成本劳动力。

• if manufacturers cannot find enough customers, they must reduce or change production according to demand.

• 如果制造商找不到足够的客户,他们必须根据需求缩减或改变生产。

• the export volume of the United States to China is 124 billion US dollars, accounting for 7.6% of its total export volume. China will take corresponding countermeasures against the United States.

• 美国对中国的出口额为1240亿美元,占其整体出口额的7.6%,中国将对美国实施相应的反制措施。

The top ten export categories of the United States to China are: grain and cotton: $15.3 billion; Aircraft and spacecraft: $13.9 billion; Vehicles: $13.2 billion; Machinery, engine and pump: $12.5 billion; Integrated circuits and microelectronic components: $12 billion; Medical and technical equipment: $7.5 billion; Plastics: US $5.1 billion; Automatic data processing equipment and its components: US $3.4 billion; Copper: $2.9 billion; Timber: $2.7 billion.

美国对中国的十大出口品类为:粮棉:153亿美元;飞机、航天器:139亿美元;车辆:132亿美元;机器、发动机、泵:125亿美元;集成电路及微电子组件:120亿美元;医疗、技术设备:75亿美元;塑料:51亿美元;自动数据处理设备及其部件等:34亿美元;铜:29亿美元;木材:27亿美元。

In other words, stopping trade with China is a double-edged sword. The United States will stop importing Chinese goods, but it will also greatly reduce its export potential.

换句话说,停止与中国的贸易是一把双刃剑,美国停止进口中国商品,但也会大大降低自身的出口潜力。

You see, making economic policies is always tricky, because there is no policy that is 100% beneficial to everyone. This is always a trade-off. Are you willing to reduce the quality of life of most Americans in order to help American manufacturers? If so, do it.

你看,制定经济政策总是很棘手的,因为根本没有对每个人都100%有利的政策。这总是一种权衡。你愿意为了帮助美国制造商而降低大多数美国人的生活质量吗?如果是这样,那就去做吧。

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