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美国网友问:如果美国冻结中国持有的美国国债,将产生什么后果?

持有一定的美债是有必要的,我国是全球最大的贸易国,与世界各国做生意,就需要美元来交易,货币价值稳定对于一个国家尤其是美国至关重要,一旦一个国家的货币价值不固定,随时都在变动,那必然会导致外资撤离,外贸陷入瘫痪,整个国家的经济都无法正常运行。在美版知乎Quora上,美国网友提问道:如果美国冻结或取消中国持有的美国国债,将产生什么后果?中国和世界将如何反应?这引起各国网友的围观和热议,我们来看看他们的观点。

美国网友问:如果美国冻结中国持有的美国国债,将产生什么后果?

问题:如果美国冻结或取消中国持有的美国国债,将产生什么后果?中国和世界将如何反应?

美国网友问:如果美国冻结中国持有的美国国债,将产生什么后果?

英国经济学家托马斯•申斯顿的回答

U.S. Treasury bonds are the U.S. government's commitment to repay bond holders the funds on paper plus interest. China has 1.38 trillion U.S. Treasury bonds.

美国国债是美国政府承诺向债券持有人偿还债券纸面上的资金加利息,中国有1.38万亿美元的美国国债。

Tomorrow, what will happen if China sells $1.38 trillion of bonds in the secondary market?

明天,如果中国在二级市场抛售1.38万亿美元的债券,将会发生什么?

• sharp decline in the value of treasury bonds - the valuation of treasury bonds will bear the brunt, and the supply of treasury bonds issued by the United States will exceed demand in the secondary market, leading to unprecedented panic. The economic crisis in 1929, the terrorist attacks in 2001, the economic crisis in 2008 and the epidemic in 2020 will be insignificant compared with the panic caused by the excess of national debt, because the United States holds 115% of its GDP, its public owes too much money in national debt, more and more bonds will be sold and their value will plummet.

• 国债价值暴跌——国债估值将首当其冲,美国发行的国债将在二级市场供过于求,导致前所未有的恐慌。1929年经济危机、2001年恐怖袭击、2008年经济危机、2020年疫情与国债过剩所造成的恐慌相比,将是微不足道的,因为美国持有其GDP的115%的债务,其公众在国债中欠了太多的钱,越来越多的债券将被抛售,其价值将暴跌。

• depreciation of the US dollar - the US dollar will plummet within 3-4 hours, and the derivatives related to the US dollar will collapse and be sold off. In the next 4-5 days, the US dollar will have a large surplus and depreciation, which will lead to the overall collapse of the US economy.

• 美元贬值——美元将在3-4小时内暴跌,与美元相关的衍生品将崩溃并被抛售,在未来4-5天的时间里,美元将大量过剩和贬值,这将导致美国经济全面崩溃。

• the currencies of relevant countries fell - economies closely linked to the United States would collapse directly due to investment in US Treasury bonds. The foreign exchange reserves of the UK, France, Germany and Australia will decline significantly, which will cause panic in these countries and markets, leading to a general decline of about 35% - 45% in the stock market. In the next few days, sterling and the euro will begin to depreciate.

• 相关国家的货币下跌——与美国有着紧密联系的经济体,由于投资持有美国国债将直接崩溃。英国、法国、德国和澳大利亚的外汇储备将大幅度下降,这将在这些国家和市场引发恐慌,导致股市普遍下跌35%-45%左右。在接下来的几天里,英镑和欧元将开始贬值。

• appreciation of Swiss franc and RMB - the Swiss Franc will appreciate, gold and China's RMB will also appreciate, and the growth of its value will gradually stabilize.

• 瑞士法郎和人民币升值——瑞士法郎将升值,黄金和中国人民币也将升值,其价值的增长将逐步稳定。

• the destruction of the US economy - markets will be destroyed piece by piece. As the currency plummets, the public will feel upset and panic. Hundreds of funds will lose up to 40% of their value overnight and about 80% of their value in 3-4 days.

• 美国经济的毁灭——市场将被一块一块地摧毁。随着货币暴跌,公众将感到心烦和恐慌,数百只基金将在一夜之间损失高达40%的价值,并在3-4天内损失约80%的价值。

A large number of selling will flow into the market, and the overall impact and damage will be disastrous. U.S. debt will lose value and reputation, and other countries will sell U.S. debt or threaten the United States to make more concessions (for example, Russia, which has $137 billion in debt, will tell the United States that it will not sell debt in exchange for ending all Sanctions tomorrow)

大量抛售将涌入市场,整体影响和损害将是灾难性的。美国债务将失去价值和声誉,其他国家将出售美国债务或威胁美国做出更多让步(例如,拥有1370亿美元债务的俄罗斯将告诉美国,它不会出售债务,以换取在明天结束所有制裁等)

Unfortunately, even China cannot be alone.

不幸的是,就是中国也难以独善其身。

• troubled Chinese exporters - Chinese exporters have a natural affinity for the dollar and their exports will plummet in a few weeks. Since the US dollar is a common currency - unlike the rupee - more than 60-70 countries will feel the impact of China's choice, which in turn means the end of China's sharp export growth and huge losses for Chinese exporters.

• 陷入困境的中国出口商——中国出口商对美元有着天然的亲近感,再过几周,他们的出口就会骤然下降。由于美元是通用货币——与卢比不同——超过60-70个国家将感受到中国选择的影响,这反过来意味着中国出口大幅增长的终结和中国出口商的巨大损失。

• manufacturing center in deep trouble - China's manufacturing facilities construction and labor force will suddenly stop, American companies or companies in many countries will no longer be able to pay or invest, the manufacturing industry will decline and the demand will decline.

• 深陷水深火热中的制造业中心——中国的制造设施建设、劳动力工作都将戛然而止,美国公司或许多国家的公司再也无法支付或投资,制造业将下滑,需求将会下降。

• China's foreign exchange reserves plummeted - China has a large amount of foreign exchange reserves, and its value will plummet. This will mean that Chinese projects will be affected all over the world, including bri and obor.

• 中国外汇储备暴跌——中国拥有大量外汇储备,其价值将暴跌。这将意味着中国的项目将在世界各地受到影响,包括BRI和OBOR。

The end result: both the United States and China will suffer a heavy blow. The United States will suffer a heavy blow. This time trump can no longer borrow money from the public, because the American public may even barter for salt and vegetables, and Americans will completely lose confidence in the dollar.

最终结果:这是个双输的局面,美国和中国都将遭受重创。美国将遭受重创,这一次特朗普再也不能向公众借钱了,因为美国公众甚至可能会去以物易物的方式换取盐和蔬菜,美国人将对美元彻底失去信心。


美国网友问:如果美国冻结中国持有的美国国债,将产生什么后果?

投资专家马歇尔•吉特勒的回答

Is it true that the $1 trillion debt owed by the United States to China is more beneficial to the United States than to China?

美国欠中国的1万亿美元债务对美国的好处大于中国,这是真的吗?

First, we need to clarify some things. The United States has no debt to China, not at all. China has more than $1 trillion in US Treasury bonds, but this is completely different from "debt to China".

首先,我们需要澄清科普一些事情。美国没有欠中国债,一点也没有,中国拥有超过1万亿美元的美国国债,但这与“欠中国债”完全是两码事。

Anyone can buy or sell securities. When the US Treasury Department or similar developed country governments anywhere in the world (Britain, Germany, France, Japan, Australia, the Netherlands, etc.) sell sovereign debt, the world will queue up to buy it. US Treasuries, especially the top of the sovereign debt food chain, are regarded as safe havens by global central banks and institutional investors.

任何人都可以买卖证券。当美国财政部或世界上任何地方(英国、德国、法国、日本、澳大利亚、荷兰等)的类似发达国家政府出售主权债务时,全世界都会排队购买。美国国债尤其是主权债务食物链的顶端,被全球央行和机构投资者视为安全的避风港。

Moreover, back to the question, the US Treasury bond itself cannot be frozen because it is anonymous. The United States will not distinguish whether the Treasury bond belongs to China, Japan, Citibank or the United States. Therefore, there is no need to worry about China's holding of us bearer treasury bonds.

再者,回到问题上来,美国国债本身是冻结不了的,因为是不记名的,美国不会区分国债到底是属于中国的,日本的,花旗银行的,还是美国哪个人的。所以中国持有的美国不记名国债是不用担心的。

However, if it does break, the United States can freeze China's capital account in the United States (note that this does not mean freezing the repayment of US Treasury bonds, but if it does, the 1.2 trillion treasury bonds will not matter), and terminate China's US dollar settlement system, but as a sovereign equivalence, Obviously, China will also freeze the domestic assets of the United States and stop the exchange of RMB and US dollar (in fact, similar things have been done in China for 49 years). This money is also very critical to the United States, especially for a large number of high-tech enterprises in the United States.

但是如果真的撕破脸,美国确实可以冻结中国在美的资金账户(注意这并不等于冻结美国国债偿还,不过如果真到那个时候,那1.2万亿国债反而不重要了),并终止中国的美元结算体系,不过作为主权对等,显然中国也会冻结美国在国内的资产并终止人民币和美元汇兑(实际上类似的事情国内49年干过),这些钱对美国来说也同样非常关键,尤其是对美国大量的高科技企业来说,是生死存亡的问题。

Once such a hard decoupling happens, not only China but also the United States cannot afford it. Don't forget that once the official exchange channels are closed, underground banks will inevitably rise, especially anonymous e-money represented by bitcoin will be popular, and the United States can't afford the price of China selling dollars in underground banks.

一旦真的这样硬脱钩,其代价不仅中国承担不起,美国也同样承担不起。别忘了,一旦官方汇兑渠道封闭,地下钱庄必然兴起,尤其是以比特币等为代表的匿名电子货币肯定会大行其道,中国在地下钱庄抛售美元这个代价美国也承受不起。

We should know that China and the United States are not the only countries in the world. If China and the United States blockade each other and eventually lose both sides, it can only be a complete victory for the euro in the end. And don't forget, China and Hong Kong.

要知道世界上不只有中美两国,中美如果互相封锁最终两败俱伤,最终只可能是欧元的大获全胜。另外别忘了,中国还有香港这个国际金融中心留有余地。

In addition, one thing in history will also frighten the United States: in the early days of the founding of the people's Republic of China, it announced the control and inventory of U.S. assets in China, and frozen the deposits of the U.S. government, companies and individuals in China.

美国网友问:如果美国冻结中国持有的美国国债,将产生什么后果?

上海街道

另外历史上的一件事也会让美国胆战心惊:建国初期宣布管制和清查美国在华资产,冻结美国政府、公司及个人在中国的存款。

At that time, Britain had the most assets in China, and Americans ranked second. When new China was founded, there were more than 1700 foreign enterprises in China, of which 299 were British, followed by 212 in the United States. These companies are mainly in Shanghai, and banks alone have opened 12 before and after.

当时各国在中国的资产,英国最多,美国人排在第二位。新中国成立的时候,在中国的外国企业一共有1700多家,其中英国人有299家,美国排在其后,有212家。这些公司主要是在上海,光是银行前前后后就开了12家。

After receiving the order from the administrative yuan, the governments of all localities immediately deployed to investigate and take action on the U.S. assets within their respective jurisdictions.

各地政府接到政务院的命令之后,立即进行部署,对各自辖区内的美国资产展开调查,采取行动。

First of all, we will exercise military control over the power, public utilities, real estate and other enterprises in the United States, and hand over the shares and creditor's rights of Americans in these enterprises to the people's Bank of China to set up a special account for freezing.

首先,对美国的电力、公用事业、房地产等企业实行军事管制,把美国人在这些企业里面的股权、债权交中国人民银行设立专门帐户予以冻结。

The wharves, warehouses, ships and oil companies owned by Americans should be expropriated immediately, leaving aside the issue of property rights, and the management right of the enterprise should be returned to the government first. For some materials, real estate and other property that can be valued, the central Bank of China shall set the price according to the property, and the funds received shall be frozen by the central Bank of China.

对美国人所属的码头、仓库、船舶、石油公司等等,立即征用,撇开产权问题不谈,先把企业的管理权收归政府。对一些物资、房产,以及其他可以作价的财产,一律由银行按物作价,所收资金由银行予以冻结。

At that time, many American enterprises closed down long ago. The government ordered them to clean up and sell all their property within a time limit, and the proceeds were also frozen by the central Bank of China. In addition, all the land, farmland, horse racing grounds and other places that the imperialists used to occupy by virtue of their privileges should be recovered.

当时有不少美国人的企业早就歇业,政府命令他们限期自行清理出售全部财产,所得款项同样由中央银行冻结。除此之外,对帝国主义过去凭借特权占有的地皮、农田、跑马场之类的地方,全部要收回。

美国网友问:如果美国冻结中国持有的美国国债,将产生什么后果?

Shanghai is the core of American economic power in China, and most of its assets are concentrated here. On December 30, the Shanghai Municipal People's government took the lead in implementing the regulation of US funded enterprises. The primary objectives are Shanghai electric power company, Shanghai telephone company and Shanghai Electric Company. These companies were originally British. Among them, Shanghai electric power company was established by British DESs and others in 1882. It is the first large-scale power plant in China.

上海是美国在华经济势力的核心,其资产大部分集中在这里。12月30日,上海市人民政府率先施行对美资企业的管制,首要目标就是上海电力公司、上海电话公司和上海电气公司。这几家公司原来都是英国人的,其中上海电力公司是1882年由英国人狄斯等人建立的,是中国土地上第一家成规模的发电厂。

After the successful implementation of the regulation of the three major companies of electric power, telephone and electricity, the Shanghai Municipal People's government has implemented the regulation of 115 American enterprises, including American commercial bank, Texaco and Mobil.

在成功实施对电力、电话、电气三大公司的管制之后,上海市人民政府又分别对包括美国商业银行、德士古石油公司和美孚石油公司等在内的115家美国企业施行了管制。

At the same time, Beijing, Qingdao, Chongqing and other places have also checked and frozen American enterprises and assets in accordance with the guidelines of the central government. This action lasted until the end of 1952 and was basically completed. A total of 304 US funded enterprises were received and controlled in all localities, with hundreds of millions of yuan of frozen deposits.

与此同时,北京、青岛、重庆等地也按照中央的方针,对美国企业、资产进行清查、冻结。这项行动一直持续到1952年底才基本结束,各地共接收管制美资企业304家,冻结的存款有上亿元。

The US economic power in China has been devastated and wants to freeze China's assets? The United States does not have the courage.

美国在中国的经济势力受到了毁灭性的打击,想要冻结中国的资产?美国还没有这个胆量。

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