扒车喵美国全球霸权的建立，可谓是二十世纪最重要的国际事件之一。十九世纪末二十世纪初，美国的工业产值开始超越老牌殖民帝国英国、法国。二战后，美国国际政治军事权力如日中天，成为“独霸一方”的超级大国，苏联解体后更是不可一世、无人匹敌。某些美国人同样有着较强的危机意识，在美版知乎quora上，美国网友提问道：美国可以从中国历史中汲取什么教训？这引起各国网友的围观和热议，我们看看他们的观点。
问题的：美国可以从中国的历史中汲取什么教训？
南加州大学教授弗莱德•蓝德斯的回答
The border wall can play a great role. Build one in the north and one in the south to isolate Canada and Mexico. It can eliminate many troubles, such as drugs and illegal immigrants.
边境墙可以起很大的作用，南北各修一条，隔绝加拿大和墨西哥，可以杜绝很多麻烦，如毒品和非法移民。
In Chinese history, until 1840, the Great Wall was the main fortification for the annoying nomads in the north. Its first function was alarm and communication. In ancient times, there was no telephone, so the most effective way to convey the information that nomads were invading was wolf smoke, which might convey the information to the headquarters in one day, and the army could assemble. In this way, when the barbarians reach the wall on the ridge after the long march and are exhausted, they will find a strong army preparing for battle.
在中国历史上，直到1840年，长城一直是北方恼人的游牧民族的主要防御工事，它的第一个功能是报警和通信。在古代，没有电话，所以传达游牧民族正在入侵的信息最有效的方式是狼烟，这可能会在一天之内将信息传达给总部，军队也可以集结起来。这样，当野蛮人在长征后到达山脊上的城墙并精疲力竭时，他们会发现一支强大的军队在厉兵秣马，严阵以待。
Some smart savage chiefs were very smart and came up with the idea of bypassing the city wall, avoiding the Han Army and launching a sudden attack. But when they reached the end of the wall, they would find the Han Army waiting for them. Why? Because it is easier for the Han Army to walk on the wall, while the barbarians can only march in the wild with mountains and marshes.
一些聪明的野蛮酋长非常聪明，想出了绕过城墙、避开汉军并发动突然袭击的主意。但当他们到达城墙的尽头时，他们会发现汉军正等着他们。为什么？因为汉军可以在城墙上的路比较好走，而野蛮人只能在有山有沼的野外行军。
Since the nomads had only one trade option, the Han people, they could not forge metal products. The emperor of the Han Dynasty could impose severe economic sanctions on them with the Great Wall. They just issued orders to ban all trade and waited for the nomads to exhaust their iron arrows and their military strength became weak, so that the Central Plains Dynasty could achieve its strategic goal without a single soldier.
由于游牧民族只有一种贸易选择，即汉人，他们不能锻造金属制品，汉朝皇帝可以用长城对他们进行严厉的经济制裁。他们只是发布命令，禁止所有贸易，等待游牧民族用尽他们的铁箭头，军事力量变得虚弱，那么中原王朝就可以不费一兵一卒达到战略目的。
For example, after Zhu Yuanzhang of the Ming Dynasty chased the Mongolian rulers north of the Great Wall, Mongolian tribes used bone arrows within 30 years, not to mention important things such as salt and tea. Few individual smugglers can cross the wall through patrols. Therefore, the third function of the wall is economic blockade.
例如，明朝的朱元璋在长城以北追赶蒙古统治者之后，蒙古部落在30年内使用了骨制箭头，更不用说盐和茶之类的重要东西了。极少有个别走私者也不可能通过巡逻越过隔离墙，因此，隔离墙的第三个功能是经济封锁。
So in short, the Great Wall is very effective against northern nomads such as Huns, Mongols and Turks.
所以简而言之，长城在对抗北方游牧民族如匈奴、蒙古和土耳其人方面非常有效。
The Song Dynasty lost the Great Wall, so it was always weak until its demise. The Ming dynasty built the Great Wall, so it was able to win the northern military victory.
宋朝失去了长城，所以它终其灭亡都一直很虚弱，明朝修建了长城，所以才能取得北方军事的胜利。
美国历史学家艾伦•琼斯的回答
Arrogance and ignorance will lead to the destruction of a great empire.
傲慢和无知将导致一个伟大帝国的灭亡。
Before the industrialization of the west, China has always been the leading force in the known world. It believes that its way of doing things is the best in the world, and therefore has no interest in understanding the world outside China.
在西方工业化之前，中国一直是可知世界的主导力量，它认为自己的行事方式是世界上最好的，并因此完全没有兴趣了解中国以外的世界。
They will think, “for thousands of years, we Chinese have been doing things according to our own traditions. How can these barbarians teach us good things?” Of course, arrogance and ignorance will lead to social stagnation – no reform, no change… Only after the British appeared and drove them away did they pay the price for their arrogance.
他们会想：“几千年来，我们中国人一直按照自己的传统做事，这些野蛮人怎么能教给我们好东西呢？”当然，傲慢无知会导致社会停滞不前——没有改革，没有改变……在英国人出现并将其赶走之后，他们才为自己的狂妄付出了代价。
Now, some Westerners I meet seem to have the same mentality as the Chinese in the late Qing Dynasty… Obsessed with “democracy! Freedom and human rights! America first!” In the beautiful lies drawn.
现在，我所遇到的一些西方人，他们似乎和晚清的中国人有着相同的心态……痴迷沉浸在“民主！自由人权！美国第一！”所绘制的美丽谎言中。
停电的自由女神像
They are full of such thoughts: “what do you brainwashed who have no taste for democracy and freedom know?! 10% GDP growth rate? It must be false. They are too afraid to say what they think. They must be eagerly waiting for the Western savior to rescue them from their suffering…”.
他们满脑子都是这种极端荒谬的想法：“你们这些对民主和自由毫无品味的人知道什么？！10%的GDP增长率？一定是假的，他们太害怕，不敢说出自己的想法，他们一定是在急切地等待西方救世主把他们从苦难中解救出来…”
“Chinese people can’t innovate. China has built the world’s fastest computer with its own CPU? The quality of research papers published by China ranks second in the world, roughly equal to that of Germany and the UK combined? In 2014, China received US $15.5 billion in venture capital, about 50% higher than the US $10.6 billion obtained by Europe in the same period, although the economic scale of the EU is larger than that of China? Venture capitalists of Sequoia and KPCB Don’t you know that innovation is only possible in democratic countries? “
又或者是这样的诽谤言论：“中国人一点都不擅长创新，中国用自建的CPU建造了世界上最快的计算机？中国发表的研究论文质量位居世界第二，大致相当于德国和英国的总和？2014年，中国获得了155亿美元的风险资本，比同期欧洲获得的106亿美元高出约50%，尽管欧盟的经济规模比中国还要大？红杉和KPCB的风险资本家难道不知道创新只有在西方民主国家才有可能吗？”
“Well… I only know that China is only suitable for making cheap toys that always break down, so these news must be exaggerated propaganda by China, otherwise I will pretend not to hear it. Anyway, China will collapse one day, and the stupid things I hear about China that are not in line with my world view will disappear…”
亦或是：“嗯…我只知道中国只适合制造总是坏掉的廉价玩具，所以这些消息一定是中国夸张的宣传，否则我就假装没听到。不管怎样，中国总有一天会崩溃，我听到的关于中国的那些不符合我世界观的愚蠢的事情都会消失……”
The United States has no exception theory, just as the Romans, Britons, Turks and Chinese have no exception theory. Arrogance + ignorance always leads to the destruction of all once great empires without exception.
美国不能永远活在例外论的世界，总觉得自己与众不同，但就像罗马人、英国人、土耳其人和中国人没有例外论一样，傲慢+无知总是无一例外地导致所有曾经伟大的帝国的灭亡。
印度网友Yogesh•Mani的回答
First, a country that is too conservative will eventually lag behind others. Although I doubt the possibility that the United States will be invaded soon, it must be slowly declining, in part because the United States seems to adopt a culture that advocates rigidity rather than openness. It seems that there is a general tendency to believe that American philosophy has found the perfect answer to everything eternal, so there is absolutely no need to change.
首先，一个过于保守的国家最终会落后于其他国家。虽然我怀疑美国会很快被入侵的可能性，但它肯定是在慢慢走下坡路，部分原因是美国似乎采用了一种提倡僵化而非开放的文化。就好像有这样一种普遍的倾向，认为美国哲学已经为永恒的一切找到了完美的答案，因此，绝对没有必要改变。
-Everyone is trying to reduce climate change? Sorry, it will damage our economy and affect our work. Do they even suspect that climate change is caused by human activities?
-每个人都在努力减少气候变化？抱歉，这会损害我们的经济，影响我们的工作，他们甚至怀疑气候变化是由人类活动引起的吗？
-Is everyone trying to improve or implement universal health care? Sorry, this is socialism. Everything related to socialism is taboo in the United States.
-每个人都在努力改善或实施全民医疗？抱歉，这是社会主义，所有与社会主义有关的东西在美国都是禁忌的。
-Trying to narrow the gap between the rich and the poor? Sorry, this is contrary to the American dream and runs counter to capitalism in principle.
-试图缩小贫富差距？抱歉，这违背了美国梦，在原则上与资本主义背道而驰。
When it comes to the economy, if you spend money on the wrong things, if only a few people can benefit from it, it doesn’t matter how rich your country is or how good the economy is.
说到经济，如果你把钱花在错误的事情上，如果只有少数人能从中受益，那么你的国家有多富裕，或者经济状况有多好都无关紧要。
At almost every moment in history, China is one of the richest countries on earth. Even before the Sino Japanese war in 1895, China was much richer than Japan. If empress Cixi didn’t spend all her imperial budget on luxury, China could have built a better Navy. The Song Dynasty was no poorer than the Mongols and the Ming Dynasty was no poorer than the Manchus, but both failed because the former spent money on luxury and pleasure, while the farmers were starving to death.
在历史上几乎每一个时刻，中国都是地球上最富有的国家之一。即使在1895年中日战争之前，中国也比日本富裕得多，如果慈禧太后不把所有帝国预算都花在奢侈的东西上，中国本可以建设一支更好的海军。宋朝并不比蒙古人穷，明朝也不比满族穷，但两者都失败了，因为前者把钱花在奢侈享乐的事情上上，而农民却快要饿死了。
Today, the richest 1% of Americans own about 40% of their national wealth, while the bottom 40% are trying to get enough food to avoid hunger. We don’t even have to talk about their health care and other needs. Most students who decide to go to college will be in debt after graduation. The money spent on the military in this country is astronomical, but in improving the environment, education system, medical system, crumbling infrastructure The situation of many veterans and the elderly is frequently in arrears.
今天，美国最富有的1%的人拥有大约40%的国民财富，而最底层的40%正努力获得足够的食物以避免挨饿，我们甚至不必谈论他们的医疗保健和其他需求，大多数决定上大学的学生毕业后都将债台高筑，这个国家在军队上花的钱是个天文数字，但在改善环境、教育体系、医疗体系、摇摇欲坠的基础设施、许多退伍军人和老人的状况等方面却频频拖欠。
Therefore, the biggest enemy of a big country like the United States is likely never to be foreigners. The biggest enemy of the United States almost always comes from home. The biggest enemy that led to the collapse of many big countries was party politics.
因此，像美国这样的大国的最大敌人很可能永远不会是外国人，美国最大的敌人几乎总是来自国内。而导致许多大国垮台的最大敌人是政党政治。
When you put the interests of the party above the state, you will do something in favor of the party at the expense of the interests of the state. In China’s long history, internal conflicts have led to the collapse of too many dynasties. In fact, the downfall of almost every dynasty was caused, at least to some extent, by internal conflict. When you carefully observe the current political situation in the United States, you can easily realize that there are problems in some places. The two major political parties always seem to be blindly opposed to each other.
当西方国家把党派的利益置于国家之上时，你会做一些有利于党派私利而牺牲国家利益的事情，在中国漫长的历史中，内部冲突导致了太多王朝的垮台，几乎每个王朝的垮台都至少在某种程度上是由内部冲突造成的。当你仔细观察美国当前的政治形势时，你很容易就会意识到有些地方出了问题，两大政党似乎总是盲目地相互对立。
During Obama’s two terms in office, Republicans opposed almost all his proposals and did not even analyze whether his proposals would help the country. Then there is trump, whose only goal in the white house seems to be to overthrow what Obama has done, no matter what. If this is the political atmosphere of a country, how can it work normally? I mean, look, Republicans and Democrats have good and bad aspects on different issues, so it’s best to choose their respective advantages to form a good plan, but in the current political atmosphere, this is almost impossible.
在奥巴马的两个任期内，共和党人几乎反对他提出的所有建议，甚至没有分析他的提议是否有助于国家。然后是特朗普，他在白宫的唯一目标似乎是推翻奥巴马所做的一切，不管是什么。如果这是一个国家的政治氛围，它如何能够正常运转？我的意思是，看，共和党人和民主党人在不同的议题上都有好的和坏的方面，所以最好选择他们各自的优点，形成一个好的方案，但在目前的政治气氛下，这几乎是不可能的。
美国网友David•Pan的回答
Since the an Shi rebellion, the Tang Dynasty has experienced a strategic contraction due to the increasing external threats such as Tubo, Khitan Confederation and Nanzhao kingdom. Therefore, the Tang Dynasty formed a complex relationship with military regions and legions. On the one hand, the Tang government needed the military region’s Jiedu envoy to deal with external threats. On the other hand, the need for a large amount of military spending to win the loyalty of professional soldiers who often disobey discipline has become a huge financial burden on the central government.
自安史之乱以来，由于吐蕃、契丹邦联、南诏王国等外部威胁日益增加，唐朝经历了战略收缩。因此，唐朝与军区和军团形成了复杂的关系。一方面，唐朝政府需要军区节度使来应对外部威胁。另一方面，需要大量军费来赢得那些经常不服管教的职业军人的忠诚，已经成为中央政府的巨大财政负担。
The soldiers of the Mid Tang, Five Dynasties and Ten Kingdoms periods were famous for their disobedience, arrogance and aggression. The armor, utensils and paintings of this period vividly reflected the characteristics and behavior of the military class.
中唐五代十国时期的士兵以不服从、傲慢、侵略著称，这一时期的盔甲、器物和绘画生动地反映了军事阶级的特征和行为。
Today, we see a similar trend in the United States. As the decline of US hegemony contrasts with the rise of foreign forces (China, Russia, Iran, North Korea, Turkey, India…), trump is promoting global strategic contraction. The United States is undergoing a great transformation from a universal empire to a nationalist country. However, trump had to announce a substantial increase in the defense budget, including the upgrading and purchase of weapons and an increase in the wages of soldiers.
如今，我们在美国也看到了类似的趋势。由于美国霸权的衰落与外国势力（中国、俄罗斯、伊朗、朝鲜、土耳其、印度……）的崛起形成对比，特朗普正在推动全球战略收缩。美国正在经历从一个普世帝国到一个民族主义国家的巨大转变。然而，特朗普不得不宣布大幅增加国防预算，包括升级和购买武器以及增加士兵工资。
This seems controversial, and liberals may interpret it as trump going crazy again. However, this reflects not trump’s madness or “China’s threat”, but the political and economic reality of the United States.
这似乎是有争议的，自由派可能会将其解读为特朗普再次发疯。然而，这反映的不是特朗普的疯狂或“中国的威胁”，而是美国的政治和经济现实。
The reality is that US political leaders must win the support and loyalty of increasingly influential military factions and classes (military industrial complex). A global empire with accumulated historical, internal and external interests has made the military a huge profit hungry industrial and popular group, which, in my opinion, is strong enough to threaten the position of the president.
现实是，美国政治领导人必须赢得影响力日益增强的军事派系和阶级（军工复合体）的支持和忠诚。拥有累积的历史、内部和外部利益的全球帝国，已使军队成为一个巨大的利润渴求产业和大众化群体，在我看来，这一群体强大到威胁总统的地位。
On the other hand, since the disappearance of self-made manufacturing industry, the financial hegemony of the United States has been based on military hegemony. The United States needs the army to maintain its hegemony, but this service and industrial ecosystem is not free.
另一方面，自制造业消失以来，美国的金融霸权建立在军事霸权的基础上，美国需要军队来维护其霸权，但这种服务和工业的生态系统并不是免费的。
Therefore, the United States is facing the same dilemma as the Tang Dynasty in terms of military factions and classes. Soon, structural conflicts will erupt if the US economy and government budget cannot support huge spending. How to deal with these challenges will be a difficult task for Biden and future leaders.
因此，美国正面临着与唐朝在军事派系和阶级方面相同的困境。不久之后，一旦美国经济和政府预算无法支持巨额支出，结构性冲突就会爆发。对于拜登和未来领导人来说，如何应对这些挑战将是一项艰巨的任务。
军工复合体
There was a well-designed and complex bureaucracy in the Tang Dynasty. Laws, supervision and checks and balances were used to restrict the army, generals and soldiers. It was not a system problem, but a problem of obedience to rules and systems caused by internal corruption, external accumulation and environment.
唐朝有一个精心设计和复杂的官僚机构，法律、监督、制衡来约束军队、将军和士兵，可不是制度问题，而是内部腐败、外部积累和环境引发的对规则和制度的服从出现了问题。
The US military already has this trend. The US military not only has a close relationship with the arms industry and lobbyists, but also has experienced serious internal corruption. The military court’s lenient punishment for war crimes, corruption and sexual assault by American soldiers also shows that the institution does not always function as institutionalism and military nationalization promise.
美国军方已经有了这种趋势。美国军方不仅与军火工业和说客有着密切的关系，而且还经历了严重的内部腐败。军事法庭对战争罪、腐败和美国士兵性侵的宽松惩罚也表明，该机构并不总是像制度主义和军事国有化承诺的那样发挥作用。
After all, if the agency can magically solve all problems, Liberia and the Philippines, which replicate the political system of the United States, should have become developed countries, rather than still struggling with poverty or civil war.
毕竟，如果该机构能够神奇地解决所有问题的话，那么复制美国政治制度的利比里亚和菲律宾应该已经成为发达国家，而不是仍在与贫困或内战作斗争。
In the case of such capitalization of the army, structurally speaking, in the long run, the loyalty and discipline of soldiers are questionable. In order to prepare for the future, I suggest American scholars and politicians immediately study the history of the middle and late Tang Dynasty and the Five Dynasties and Ten Kingdoms period.
在军队如此资本化的情况下，从结构上讲，从长远来看，士兵的忠诚和纪律是值得怀疑的，为了为未来做准备，我建议美国学者和政治家立即研究唐朝中后期和五代十国时期的历史。
