扒车喵一向依仗霸权胡作非为、满世界煽风点火的美国，在监听盟国、制裁盟友、抢英法德抗疫物资的时候，就该想到会有被“群起而攻之”的一天。眼下，“苦美久矣”的国际社会，为了反制美国霸权，已经选择了一条最有效，且令白宫最为忌惮的道路——推动“去美元化”进程、终结美元霸权。在美版知乎Quora上，美国网友提问道：中国和俄罗斯等国可以彻底摆脱对美元体系的依赖吗？他们为什么这么做？这引起了各国网友的围观和讨论，我们来看看他们的观点。
问题
德国网友Jerome Matthew的回答
First, because of “sanctions”, the strength of the United States depends on the core role of the US dollar in the global economy.
首先是因为“制裁”，美国的实力取决于美元在全球经济中扮演的核心角色。
The United States often strengthens its authority to implement its foreign policy objectives through economic sanctions – especially against Russia, Cuba, Iran and Venezuela. Any company, country or bank that violates the provisions of U.S. sanctions may face multiple penalties.
美国经常通过经济制裁——特别是对俄罗斯、古巴、伊朗和委内瑞拉的制裁——来加强美国实施其外交政策目标的权威，任何违反美国制裁规定的公司、国家或银行都可能面临多项处罚。
For example, they may lose access to the U.S. market, obtain dollars or sell oil like Iran, as well as sanctions against Venezuela, including a comprehensive embargo on any country that provides assistance to Venezuela’s oil industry.
例如，他们可能失去进入美国市场、获取美元或像伊朗那样出售石油的能力，以及对委内瑞拉的制裁，其中包括对任何向委内瑞拉石油工业提供援助的国家的全面禁运。
In addition, there are additional sanctions against Russian banks and oligarchs, as well as repeated sanctions threats from the United States against European companies engaged in the Nord Stream 2 pipeline project in Germany. Companies in Europe and elsewhere seeking to trade and invest in Cuba have also been severely punished.
此外还有包括对俄罗斯银行和寡头的额外制裁，以及美国对在德国从事北溪2号（Nord Stream 2）管道工程的欧洲公司一再发出的制裁威胁。欧洲和其他地方寻求在古巴进行贸易和投资的公司也受到了重罚。
Moreover, nearly 90% of the world’s foreign exchange transactions involve us dollars, so putting eggs in one basket is too risky.
再者就是全球近90%的外汇交易涉及美元，把鸡蛋放在一个篮子里风险太高。
The US dollar accounts for two-thirds of international debt. Therefore, foreign banks need a lot of US dollars to trade. Almost all crude oil sales are denominated in US dollars, so it is called petrodollars.
美元占据三分之二的国际债务，因此，外国银行需要大量美元进行交易，几乎所有的原油销售都是以美元计价的，因此被称为石油美元。
According to the IMF, 62% of the central bank’s reserves are held in dollars.
根据国际货币基金组织（IMF）的数据，62%的央行外汇储备是以美元的形式持有的。
The United States is the world’s largest economy, and its economic strength supports the value of the dollar, which is the main reason why the dollar has become the most powerful currency.
美国是世界上最大的经济体，其经济实力支撑着美元的价值，这是美元成为最强大货币的主要原因。
Although the US public debt is as high as US $23 trillion and growing, the US dollar has formed a high enough position to attract global investors. Recently, however, some world leaders have called for an end to the dominance of the dollar, such as:
尽管美国公共债务高达23万亿美元，而且还在增长，但美元已经形成了足够高的地位，对全球投资者具有强大吸引力。然而，最近一些世界领导人呼吁结束美元的主导地位，例如：
• Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan said at a business forum in Kyrgyzstan: “we need to fundamentally and gradually end the monopoly of the US dollar by gradually using local and domestic currencies in our trade with each other.”
•土耳其总统塔伊普·埃尔多安在吉尔吉斯斯坦的一个商业论坛上说：“我们需要通过在我们彼此间的贸易中逐渐使用当地和本国货币，从根本上逐步结束美元的垄断。”
• Russian President Vladimir Putin said at the St Petersburg International Economic Forum: “the world can see that the monopoly of the dollar is unstable and dangerous for many people.”
•俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔·普京（Vladimir Putin）在圣彼得堡国际经济论坛（St Petersburg International Economic Forum）上表示：“全世界都可以看到，美元的垄断地位对许多人来说是不稳定和危险的。”
• Jean Claude Juncker, President of the European Commission, said at the European Parliament: “Europe pays 80% of its energy import bill worth 300 billion euros in dollars every year, while only about 2% of our energy imports come from the United States. It is absurd for the United States to make money lying down. We must let our single currency play its full role on the international stage.”
•欧盟委员会主席让·克洛德·容克在欧盟议会上说：“欧洲每年以美元支付其价值3000亿欧元的能源进口账单的80%，而我们的能源进口只有大约2%来自美国，让美国躺着赚钱，这是荒谬的。我们必须让我们的单一货币在国际舞台上充分发挥作用。”
So is there a currency that can replace the US dollar?
那么有没有一个币种可以替代美元呢？
First competitor – Euro/首位竞争者——欧元
There is no doubt that the euro is a strong competitor to the US dollar. It is the only currency that can challenge the US dollar on a global scale.
毫无疑问，欧元是美元的强大竞争对手，它是唯一能够在全球范围内挑战美元的货币。
Nevertheless, due to the negative interest rate used by the European Central Bank and the sovereign debt crisis in 2010, the attractiveness of the euro to trade and investors is decreasing unprecedentedly. In recent years, the foreign exchange reserves allocated to the euro have decreased from 27% to 21%.
尽管如此，由于欧洲央行使用负利率和2010年主权债务危机，欧元对贸易和投资者的吸引力正在史无前例地降低，近年来，分配给欧元的外汇储备从27%下降到了21%。
Facts have also proved that it is difficult for the EU to break the dominance of the US dollar for more than 70 years. It always follows the United States in major international issues and is vulnerable to the tough strategy of Washington.
事实也证明，欧盟很难打破70多年来美元的主导地位，在重大国际议题上它总是跟在美国后边亦步亦趋，很容易受到华盛顿强硬策略的影响。
France, Germany and the UK have completed the first transfer with Iran through the “trade swap support tool” (instead) in order to “export medical goods from Europe to Iran”. The United States has warned that if instex becomes the lifeline of blood supply to Iran’s economy, it will impose sanctions on relevant institutions and individuals.
法国、德国和英国曾通过“贸易互换支持工具”（INSTEX）完成与伊朗的第一笔转账，以便“欧洲向伊朗出口医疗商品”。美国已经发出警告，如果INSTEX成为对伊朗经济供血的生命线，则将对相关机构和个人实施制裁。
Since it was put into operation in June 2019, no European company or bank is willing to trade with Iran at the risk of special sanctions imposed by the United States.
自从2019年6月投入使用以来，没有一家欧洲公司和银行愿意冒美国实施特别制裁的风险和伊朗进行贸易。
The reason for Europe’s compliance with sanctions is simple: its banks and companies cannot survive the prospect of losing access to the US market and the US dollar.
欧洲遵守制裁的原因很简单，即其银行和公司无法在失去进入美国市场和美元的机会前景下生存。
In order for the euro to compete with the dollar, the eurozone needs a strong central bank and monetary union.
为了让欧元与美元竞争，欧元区需要一个强有力的中央银行和货币联盟。
Because European countries have their own financial and monetary policies, many financial markets lack the liquidity of American financial markets.
由于欧洲各国自己具有各自的金融和货币政策，许多金融市场缺乏美国金融市场的流动性。
Even the most trusted Euro denominated investments in German government bonds are often in short supply, and Germany is reluctant to finance spending by selling bonds because of its cultural tradition of debt aversion.
就连最受信任的以欧元计价投资德国政府债券也经常供不应求，由于文化传统上对债务深恶痛绝，德国不愿意通过出售债券为支出融资。
As a result, investors seeking a safe haven will rarely choose the euro. On the other hand, the supply of US government bonds is almost unlimited.
因此，寻求避风港的投资者几乎不会选择欧元。另一方面，美国政府债券的供应几乎是无限的。
Therefore, the euro is a currency that transcends national sovereignty and lacks a standard political structure to ensure a strong response in case of problems.
因此，欧元是一种跨越国家主权的货币，缺乏一个标准的政治结构，在出现问题时能够确保做出强有力的反应。
The next potential competitor – RMB/下一个潜在竞争者——人民币
China has been trying to improve the role and status of the RMB to reflect its status as a world power. In 2015, the International Monetary Fund included RMB in its important special drawing right currency basket. In 2018, it established a trading system in Shanghai to allow the purchase of crude oil in RMB.
中国一直试图提高人民币的作用和地位，以反映其作为世界大国的地位。2015年，国际货币基金组织将人民币纳入其重要的特别提款权货币篮子，2018年，它在上海建立了一个交易系统，允许以人民币购买原油。
However, later, the RMB continued to depreciate, and China’s economic slowdown, soaring debt, regulatory transparency and capital controls hindered international investors’ investment in the RMB.
然而，后来人民币持续贬值，中国经济放缓、债务飙升、监管透明度和资本管制阻碍了国际投资者对人民币的投资。
Why is it so hard to get rid of the dollar?
为什么摆脱美元这么难？
Moving to the euro, the Renminbi or even the ruble means higher transaction and hedging costs and the complexity of finding banks to deal with such transactions. The attractiveness of the euro as a currency to challenge the US dollar lost its attractiveness after the 2010 sovereign debt crisis in the region and the negative interest rate of the European Central Bank. Russia’s first year out of the US dollar was very bad, and it lost the potential return of US $7.7 billion in foreign exchange reserves.
转向欧元、人民币甚至卢布意味着更高的交易和对冲成本，以及寻找银行处理此类交易的复杂性。欧元作为货币挑战美元的吸引力在该地区2010年主权债务危机和欧洲央行负利率之后失去了吸引力，俄罗斯脱离美元的第一年非常糟糕，它失去了77亿美元的外汇储备潜在回报。
The possibility of a dollar collapse?
美元崩溃的可能性？
If China and Japan, the largest holders of U.S. Treasury bonds, decide to sell their holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds, the United States may collapse. Japan has US $1.27 trillion in treasury bonds, and China also has more than US $1 trillion in treasury bonds.
如果美国国债的最大持有者中国和日本决定抛售其持有的美国国债，美国可能会崩溃。日本拥有1.27万亿美元的美国国债，中国也拥有超过1万亿美元的国债。
Will China or Japan really sell bonds? No, Japan, China and the EU are heavily dependent on the US market. The United States is the world’s largest consumer market. For example, China has a surplus of $400-600 billion in trade with the United States every year. It was originally necessary to use dollars for commodity pricing and settlement. Abandoning the US dollar is tantamount to abandoning the largest consumer market in the United States, which will bring a fatal blow to domestic export trade. As an important trading partner of the United States, it is impossible for China to get rid of the US dollar system at this stage.
中国或日本真的会抛售国债吗？不会，日本、中国和欧盟严重依赖美国市场。美国是全球第一大消费市场，比如中国每年从对美贸易中顺差4-6000亿美元，本来就要用美元来进行商品计价、结算。如果弃用美元，就等于放弃美国这个最大的消费市场，这会给国内的出口贸易带来致命打击，作为美国重要贸易伙伴的中国，现阶段要想摆脱美元体系也是不可能的。
Therefore, the dollar is unlikely to collapse at all. China, Japan and the European Union don’t want this to happen. It’s not in their best interests. Why do you try to bankrupt the best export markets?
因此，美元根本不可能崩溃。中国、日本和欧盟不希望这种情况发生，这不符合他们的最佳利益，为什么你会试图让最好的出口市场会破产？
At present, as long as the United States continues to enjoy greater investor confidence than the euro, RMB and other currencies, the US dollar will remain the world’s major currency.
目前，只要美国继续享有比欧元、人民币和其他货币更大的投资者信心，美元仍将是世界主要货币。
印度网友Hannan Maravar的回答
Gazprom’s recent oil deal with China is the largest in world history, explicitly rejecting the use of petrodollars. This sets a precedent for all countries to use their own currencies (through currency swaps) to buy oil, completely bypassing the dollar, thus stifling the petrodollar.
俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司（Gazprom）最近与中国达成的石油交易是世界历史上最大的一笔交易，明确拒绝使用石油美元。这为所有国家使用本国货币（通过货币互换）购买石油开了先例，完全绕过美元，从而扼杀了石油美元。
Not only China and Russia, but most countries in the world are using currency swaps to avoid the dollar when trading with each other. Even the International Monetary Fund and the United Nations are calling for a new global currency to replace the dollar. The world dollarization and dollar hegemony are coming to an end. The US sanctions are of little significance in the future, as a new settlement bank is emerging to handle transactions outside the US dollar and swift system.
不仅仅是中国和俄罗斯，世界上大多数国家在相互交易时都在使用货币互换来避免美元，甚至国际货币基金组织和联合国也在呼吁一种新的全球货币来取代美元。世界美元化和美元霸权即将结束。美国的制裁在未来意义不大，因为正在出现一家新的结算银行来处理美元和SWIFT系统之外的交易。
As for China, the United States is certainly not China’s largest customer. The United States accounts for only a small part of China’s total international business. However, China is Saudi Arabia’s largest customer. Now, China has one belt, one road, through Russia to deliver goods from eastern China to Madrid, and trade across Eurasia will be faster and more free, avoiding the US controlled sea passage.
至于中国，美国肯定不是中国最大的客户。美国只占中国国际业务总量的一小部分。然而，中国是沙特阿拉伯最大的客户。现在，中国已经建立了一带一路，通过俄罗斯将货物从中国东部运送到马德里，穿越欧亚大陆的贸易将更快、更自由，避免美国控制的海上通道。
The digital RMB has been put on trial nationwide in China. Once other countries adopt the same convenience, the funds sent globally as tokens can be dispersed to the clearing house to ensure that no customer in the world can be denied access under unilateral sanctions.
数字人民币已经在中国全国范围内试用。一旦其他国家采用了同样的便利，作为代币在全球范围内发送的资金可以分散到清算所，以确保在单边制裁下，全球任何客户都不能被拒绝访问。
Such a system will be faster, cheaper and more convenient for capital transfer than swift. In the era of cashless digital transactions, banks will have to reshape their functions.
这样的系统将比swift更快、更便宜、更方便地进行资本转移。在无现金数字交易的时代，银行将不得不重塑自己的功能。
The United States and Europe have been trying to adapt to the pace of revolution, while China is also conducting many experiments with its neighbors to explore the seamless integrationalways a big win.
以较低的成本获得便利总是大获全胜。
The current unilateral sanctions have weakened trust in the security of the dollar and the euro, as well as in the so-called “sacrosanct” concept of property rights on both sides of the Atlantic. Looking ahead, wealth managers and lawyers will draw lessons from the bad policies implemented in Europe and the United States at this stage and form their suggestions.
目前的单边制裁削弱了人们对美元和欧元安全的信任，以及对大西洋两岸财产权所谓“神圣不可侵犯”理念的信任。展望未来，财富经理和律师将从现阶段欧美实施的糟糕政策中汲取教训，形成他们的建议。
