扒车喵人类近300年来只有两个公认的世界第一：18世纪末到20世纪初的英国以及当今的美国，想要成为世界第一的最低标准就是起码得引领一次科技革命。这说明世界第一在拥有制定全球规则的权力的同时，还需要承担起带领人类突破生产力上限，创造更美好生活的重任。
我们当下所处的历史节点，是第三次科技革命福利即将消失殆尽，第四次科技革命将兴未兴的时间节点，非常像一战之后二战之前的那20年时间。在美版知乎Quora上，美国网友提问道：中国超越美国是不可避免的趋势吗？这引起各国网友的围观和热议，我们看看他们的观点。
问题：中国超越美国是不可避免的趋势吗？
美国专家维吉尼纳•托尔的回答
According to the current practice of the United States, yes, this is inevitable. This is not to say that the United States is about to lose its superpower status, but that the current process inevitably leads us to this point.
按照美国目前的做法，是的，这是不可避免的。这并不是说美国即将失去超级大国的地位，只是说当前的进程不可避免地将我们引向了这一点。
The main changing factors leading to China’s becoming a superpower:
导致中国成为超级大国的不断变化的主要因素：
First, ignore people’s livelihood. One of the main reasons for the collapse of the Soviet Union was that under the pressure of Western isolation and the inefficiency of the Soviet Communist Party, they were simply unable to feed and support their people, and their light industry was in a state of collapse.
一是重视民生。苏联倒台的主要原因之一是，在西方孤立和苏联共产党效率低下的压力下，他们根本无法养活和支持自己的人民，其轻工业处于崩溃的状态。
This is what China is good at. China’s economic machine takes infrastructure and development as the primary goal. They turn deserts into grasslands and forests. They have built roads, cities, high-speed railways, etc., which enable them to rescue a large number of people from poverty and continue to undertake new projects.
而这正是中国所擅长的，中国这台经济机器将基础设施和发展作为首要目标，他们把沙漠变成了草地和森林，他们修建了道路、城市、高速铁路等等，这让他们将大量人口从贫困中解救出来，并不断承担新的项目。
Second, technology. The Chinese government has invested in China and its people, and they have made great progress in modernization. Just 20 years ago, the Chinese army was nothing. Today, they are competitive in many weapon systems in future wars. From supersonic missiles, to anti satellite missiles, to gene development, to stealth fighters, the Chinese military is rapidly becoming a major challenge for the United States in the Pacific region.
二是技术。中国政府在中国及其人民身上进行了投资，他们在现代化方面取得了巨大的进步。就在20年前，中国军队还不算什么，如今，它们在未来战争的许多武器系统中都具有竞争力。从超音速导弹，到反卫星导弹，到基因开发，再到隐形战斗机，中国军方对美国来说正迅速成为太平洋地区的主要挑战对手。
Third, China’s population. With a population of more than 1 billion, China has enough manpower to compete with other countries. Chinese officials are investing a lot of educational resources to build a road to modern China. They have abandoned the one-child policy because the supply of food and other war preparedness resources is very sufficient, which means that with the arrival of the next generation, the second-largest economy will have more room for growth.
三是中国人口。中国有超过10亿人口，有足够的人力与其他国家竞争。中国官方正投入大量教育资源，建设一条通往现代中国的道路。他们已经放弃了独生子女政策，因为粮食等其他战备资源供应非常充足，这意味着，随着下一代的到来，第二大经济体将有更大的增长空间。
Fourth, the economy. China is the second largest economy in the world, and its growth rate is much faster than that of the United States. China has the largest manufacturing output in the world, and its economic scale will continue to grow with China’s modernization, the development of domestic infrastructure and the establishment of greater economic ties with the world.
四是经济。中国是世界第二大经济体，其增长速度远远快于美国，中国已经拥有世界上最大的制造业产出，其经济规模会随着中国的现代化、国内基础设施的发展以及与世界建立更大的经济联系而继续增长。
Fifth, military affairs. The Chinese army now has the world’s second-largest budget. Militarily, the best analogy between the United States and China is the United States and Germany before World War II. Although Germany has better technology, better generals, well-trained soldiers, better weapons and better tactics, we can defeat the Germans because the United States has the upper hand in economic strength and far more industrialized production capacity than Germany. In the near future, the same thing may happen between the United States and China.
五是军事。中国军队现在拥有世界第二大预算。在军事上，美国和中国之间最好的类比是二战前的美国和德国。尽管德国拥有更好的技术、更好的将军、训练有素的士兵、更好的武器和更好的战术，但由于美国的经济实力占了上风，工业化产能也远远超过德国，我们才能打败德国人。在不久的将来，美国和中国之间也可能发生同样的事情。
Sixth, the United States itself. The United States may be the biggest reason for our loss of superpower status. We allow American companies to move freely in China and spread American technical and industrial secrets. We have sold great projects at home and abroad to the Chinese and anyone willing to pay for our country. When these enterprises need to choose between home and greater profits, the capitalists do not remain loyal to the United States. They will follow the market like slaves of capital, and they will take everything from the United States.
六是美国本身。美国可能是我们失去超级大国地位的最大原因，我们允许美国公司在中国境内自由活动，散播美国的技术和工业机密。我们已经把国内外的伟大项目卖给了中国人和任何愿意为我们的国家买单的人，当这些企业需要在本土和更大利润之间做出选择时，资本家对美国没有保持忠诚。他们会像资本的奴隶一样追随市场，他们会带走美国的一切。
华尔街的资本家
American politicians have neither backbone nor authority. Whoever puts money into their campaigns and their private offshore accounts will give political rewards, and then watch it, but have no intention of stopping it.
美国的政客没有骨气，也没有权威。无论谁将资金投入到他们的竞选活动和他们的私人离岸账户中，他们都会给予政治回报，然后眼睁睁地看着这一切，却无意阻止。
The biggest comparative advantage of the United States is that China has been unable to establish important alliances with the world’s “major players” – in addition to cultural and linguistic differences, China has proved to have done nothing in controlling trade and forming a national defense alliance since World War II. No matter what your personal views on NATO, GATT and the International Monetary Fund, they are effective. They give the United States a greater voice in world affairs than its people should allow.
美国最大的相对优势在于中国一直无法与世界上的“主要参与者”建立重要的联盟——除了文化和语言上的差异，事实证明，自二战以来中国在掌控贸易和组建国防联盟方面毫无作为。无论你个人对北约、关贸总协定和国际货币基金组织的看法如何，它们都是有效的，它们让美国在世界事务中拥有比其人民应该允许的更大的发言权。
In any case, China will continue to rise. If the United States does not take measures to prevent China from reviving again, we will fall behind.
不管如何，中国将继续崛起，如果美国不能采取措施加以阻止，那么我们就会落后。
德国网友安东尼•盖尔的回答
No, China will never, not because China cannot, but because the era of a single country leading the world is coming to an end. China is committed to a multipolar world pattern, while the United States refuses and hopes to maintain hegemony. However, unless the new crown pandemic brings us back to the bronze age or species extinction, the world will become multipolar.
不，中国永远不会，并不是因为中国做不到，而是单一国家领导全球的时代正在结束。中国正在致力于多极化的世界格局，而美国拒绝，希望维持霸权，可除非新冠大流行将我们带回青铜时代或物种灭绝，否则世界将变得多极化。
• China will not be able to compete with the United States until at least a breakthrough in China’s military strength is achieved in 2040, even if the scope is reduced to Japan, Australia, New Zealand, the United States, Canada and the United Kingdom, not to mention the group of countries led by the United States.
•至少在2040年中国的军事实力实现突破性进展之前，中国将无法与美国匹敌，即使将范围缩减到日本、澳大利亚、新西兰、美国、加拿大、英国这几个国家，更不用说美国领导的国家集团了。
By 2030, China’s GDP will be much larger than that of the United States, but it will still be on the road of improving industrialization and have to invest more wealth in eradicating domestic poverty in order to maintain the income level and happiness of its population.
到2030年，中国的GDP将比美国大得多，但它仍将在完善工业化的道路上，并不得不将更多的财富投入到消除国内贫困中，以保持其人口的收入水平和幸福感。
• the population advantage of a large country will be rewritten by automation technology. People still believe that population is a symbol of resource power. But what will the global economy look like when machines do most of the work? Agriculture / Agriculture / fishery, transportation / shipping, loading and unloading; Manufacturing, construction, government services, public accommodation / hospitality, sales / retail.
•大国的人口优势将被自动化技术改写，人们目前仍然认为人口是资源权力的象征。但是，当机器承担大部分工作时，全球经济会是什么样子呢？农业/农业/渔业、运输/航运、装卸；制造、建筑、政府服务、公共住宿/招待、销售/零售。
For thousands of years, these labor departments have employed about 90% of human beings, but all these will be disturbed by automation technology. China is the largest industrialized country in the world. Nearly half of the world’s industrial products need to be supplied by China. But what will happen if machines can produce goods at one tenth of the cost of the Chinese people in the future?
几千年来，这些劳动部门雇佣了约90%的人类，但所有这些都将受到自动化技术的干扰。中国是世界上最大的工业化国家，世界将近一半的工业产品需要由中国供给，可未来如果机器可以以中国人十分之一的成本生产商品，会发生什么？
自动化设备
• China doesn’t want to play the role of the so-called superpower now. Of course, it hates the pressure of the United States, but China has no tradition of conquering everywhere. They think they are still in the stage of hiding their power and biding their time, and their traditional philosophy contains the gene of cooperation and win-win.
•中国现在不想扮演这个所谓超级大国的角色，它当然讨厌美国四处施压，但中国没有四处征服的传统，他们认为自己还处于韬光养晦的阶段，其传统哲学里边蕴藏着和合共赢的基因。
• I think politics will become globalized and multipolar, and international power groups will be more like political parties. Fortunately, a single nation state like China does not pursue hegemony like the United States. After all, superpowers are not conducive to Global Balanced Development in essence.
•我认为政治将变得全球化、多极化，国际权力集团将更像政党，幸好中国这样的单一民族国家并不追求像美国一样的霸权，毕竟超级大国本质上是不利于全球均衡发展的。
英国专家Brian Coughlan的回答
If we want to discuss whether China will become a superpower, we need to determine what the source of strength of the future world is. And how China controls them.
如果我们要讨论中国是否会成为超级大国，我们需要确定未来世界的力量源泉是什么。以及中国如何控制他们。
For example, the following elements are relevant to the future of the country:
例如以下几个事关国家未来的要素：
1. In the 21st century, urban environment becomes more and more important in determining national strength. The new urban environment means a city that is clean, safe and easy to commute, has a large number of facilities and good living costs, and has enough technology companies, enterprises and industries to attract talents. There is enough entertainment and cultural attraction to attract the best talents.
1、在21世纪，城市环境在决定国家实力方面变得更加重要。新的城市环境意味着清洁、安全、易于通勤的城市，拥有大量便利设施和良好的生活成本，拥有足够的科技公司、企业和产业来吸引人才的城市。有足够的娱乐和文化吸引力来吸引最好的人才。
The 21st century has turned cities into major power plants and countries, blindly polluting cities and expelling their best talents abroad in exchange for short-term economic benefits. In the future, the world will get nothing. Compared with the larger and denser urban environment with different levels of wealth and crime, a clean small city with good facilities, safe child rearing, enough entertainment and cultural life and good living costs can attract talents and provide power for the knowledge economy.
21世纪已经把城市变成了主要的发电厂和国家，盲目地污染城市，把他们最好的人才驱逐到国外，以换取短期的经济利益，在未来世界将一无所获。与财富和犯罪水平不同的更大、密度更高的城市环境相比，一个拥有良好设施、安全抚养孩子、足够娱乐和文化生活、良好生活成本的清洁小城市，更能吸引人才为知识经济提供动力。
2. Data. Large enterprises and governments can access a large number of data pools and train their in-depth learning neural network models to optimize their business and governance systems.
2、数据。大型企业和政府可以访问大量数据池，对其深度学习神经网络模型进行培训，以优化其商业和治理系统。
Compared with the United States or China, the United States or China allows countries and private institutions to have more access to personal data, so that they can accumulate a large amount of data to train and improve their artificial intelligence models.
与美国或中国相比，美国或中国允许国家和私人机构更多地访问个人数据，从而使他们能够积累大量数据，以训练和完善他们的人工智能模型。
智能的开端
Cause in modern times, so much industrial and commercial value comes from such an automated data model that it has become a key factor in determining who will be in power in the future.
因为在现代，如此多的工业和商业价值都来自这样的自动化数据模型，以至于它成为决定未来谁掌权的关键因素。
3. Winners and losers of climate change. China and India are expected to become future superpowers, but India is particularly exposed to the extreme risks of climate change. The North Ganges plain faces the risk of losing sustained river flow, and crop production and water supply are expected to decline sharply, which will have to be compensated by southern India or new technologies. At the same time, the centers of coastal economic powers such as Calcutta, Guangzhou and Mumbai are also at risk of sea-level rise and coastal floods.
3、气候变化的赢家和输家。中国和印度预计将成为未来的超级大国，但印度尤其面临气候变化的极端风险。北恒河平原面临着失去持续河流流量的风险，预计农作物产量和供水量将急剧下降，而印度南部或新技术将不得不弥补这一风险。与此同时，加尔各答、广州和孟买等沿海经济强国中心也面临海平面上升和沿海洪水的风险。
The ability of countries such as China and India to adapt to the era of climate change by using technology to better optimize existing water resources, clean up new water sources and improve crop production, make better use of existing arable land and resettle farmers in dying agricultural land areas is only one of the many factors that determine whether these nation States can maintain their power rise in front of the changing earth.
中国和印度等国家通过利用技术更好地优化现有水资源、清理新水源、提高作物产量，来适应气候变化时代的能力，更好地利用现有的可耕地，重新安置濒临死亡的农业用地地区的农民，只是决定这些民族国家能否在不断变化的地球面前保持其权力崛起的诸多因素之一。
These are just some of the many factors that determine the outcome of the 21st century power game. The increasing economic inequality, overpopulation, immigration, terror and political system in the era of populism are changing. As they change, they redefine how power comes from it.
这些只是决定21世纪权力游戏结果的众多因素中的一部分。民粹主义时代日益加剧的经济不平等、人口过剩、移民、恐怖和政治制度正在发生变化。随着它们的变化，它们重新定义了权力是如何从中获得的。
I found that the Chinese government’s efforts to reduce pollution, help the poor, promote social equity, reduce zombie enterprises, tighten fiscal expenditure and debt, develop a sustainable science and technology and business ecosystem in China, attract their top talents back to Chinese cities, and develop trade networks with neighboring countries, which can reflect their overall national strength far more than any original GDP comparison with the United States, which is experiencing a wave of populism in developed countries, From the perspective of pure capitalist interpretation, these measures in China are usually regarded as “unnecessary costs”. This reflects the western nature of pursuing profit and its indifference to social equity.
我发现中国政府努力减少污染，扶贫促进社会公平，减少僵尸企业，收紧财政支出和债务，在中国发展可持续的科技和商业生态系统，将他们的顶尖人才吸引回中国城市，并与邻国发展贸易网络，这远比与美国进行任何原始GDP比较更能体现他们的整体国力，而发达国家正经历民粹主义浪潮，讽刺的是，从纯粹的资本主义解释来看，中国的这些措施通常被视为“不必要的成本”，而这正反应了西方逐利的本性，及对社会公平的漠视。
