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国外网友热议:越南经济会赶上中国?

越南是与我国接壤的邻国,在历史上,越南与我国有过非同一般的关系,这些年越南走着中国曾经走过的路,经济飞速发展,但是两个国家有不小的差距。美国问答论坛Quora上有越南网友问到:为什么越南年轻人相信越南仅仅落后中国10年? 这问题引起各国网友的关注和热议,来看看网友们的回答。

中国经济下行?为什么越南人有底气10年赶上中国?看看网友回答

问题:越南仅仅落后中国10年?最近, 我经常从年轻人那里听到了什么?

中国经济下行?为什么越南人有底气10年赶上中国?看看网友回答

网友Jiangjunling的回答

The guangxi zhuang autonomous region on the china-vietnam border is one of China’s economically backward regions, Guangxi covers an area of 230,000 square kilometers, has a population of 49 million and a GDP of 320 billion us dollars (2020).

位于中越边境的广西壮族自治区是中国经济落后的地区之一,广西面积23万平方公里,人口4900万,生产总值3200亿美元(2020年)。

Vietnam has a land area of 330,000 square kilometers, a population of 92 million, and a GDP of us $320 billion (2020),Guangxi’s per capita GDP is $6,700,Vietnam’s per capita GDP is $2,700;

越南国土面积33万平方公里,人口9200万,国内生产总值3200亿美元(2020年)。广西人均GDP为6500美元,越南的人均GDP是2700美元;

Ten years from now, Vietnam’s GDP per capita is comparable to guangxi’s GDP per capita today, which is a remarkable achievement,That would take 10 years of 9% growth a year.

十年后,越南的人均GDP与今天广西的人均GDP相当,这是一个了不起的成就,这将需要越南这10年每年9%的经济增长。


中国经济下行?为什么越南人有底气10年赶上中国?看看网友回答

网友Minh Long的回答

As a Vietnamese person, let me tell you the truth from a Vietnamese perspective,Vietnam is inferior to China in nearly all areas. Don’t look at the limited data of GDP and GDP per capita; look broadly at all aspects.

作为一个越南人,让我从越南人的角度告诉你真相,越南几乎在所有领域都不如中国。不要看GDP和人均GDP的有限数据,要全面地看问题。

With many young people and abundant labor force, it is indeed like China 10 years ago.

年轻人多劳动力充足,确实是像10年前的中国。

But look at it another way:

但是,换一个角度看:

Vietnam’s GDP per capita in 2020 was $2,700, a growth rate of 2.9%

越南2020年人均GDP是2700美金,增长率2.9%

China’s per capita GDP in 2007 was $2,992, with a growth rate of 13.6%

中国2007年人均GDP是2992美金,增长率在13.6%

From this simple GDP per capita perspective, Vietnam’s growth rate is not as dazzling as China’s consecutive years of double-digit growth.

从这个简单的人均GDP来看,越南增速并没有中国连续几年的双位数增长率那么耀眼。

History is hard to replicate and there are so many different environmental factors that have led to different developments in the two countries.

历史难以复制,有非常多不同的环境因素导致两个国家的不同发展情况。

Here are a few examples for everyone to taste:

举几个例子让大家品味:

1. The Ho Chi Minh Subway is still unfinished after 10 years of construction.

1. 胡志明的地铁修了10年,还是没有完工;

2. Many places in Ho Chi Minh still only accept cash, but china have bypassing cards and gone online. The online payment market is already hot

2. 胡志明很多地方还是只能接受刷卡,但中国已经越过银行卡,直接接入了线上支付。线上支付市场已经一片火热

However, in the context of the global economic downturn, 2.9% GDP growth is still full of opportunities, but it still needs to be viewed rationally.

不过在全球经济持续低迷的情况下,2.9%的GDP增长依然是充满机会的,但是仍然需要理性看待。


中国经济下行?为什么越南人有底气10年赶上中国?看看网友回答

越南网友Arch Stanton的回答

Vietnam is more than 10 years apart, and I’m talking to young people who believe it’s only 10 years apart.

越南差距何止是10年,接下来我跟相信只有10年差距的年轻人聊一聊。

China is a fully industrialized nation. I mean industrialized like Western Europe and industrialized like the Soviet Union and Russia now. Industrialized like Canada and the United States. Industrialized like Japan and South Korea.

中国是一个完全工业化的国家,我的意思是像西欧那样的工业化,像苏联和俄罗斯那样的工业化,像加拿大和美国这样的工业化国家,日本和韩国等工业化国家。

The industrialization of China means China can build anything from scratch. China builds and sells to overseas companies giant super freight tanker ships and super tankers and giant container ships. China can mass produce trains, buses, trucks, automobiles, whatever consumer goods, etc. Vietnam cannot do any of this.

中国的工业化意味着中国可以从零开始建造任何东西,中国建造并向国外销售了巨型货运油轮、超级油轮和巨型集装箱船。中国可以大规模生产火车、公共汽车、货车、汽车等消费品,越南做不到这一点。

Vietnam has steel mills and chemical plants and other “industrial infrastructure” but in no way on any scale near that of China or South Korea or Japan.

越南拥有钢铁厂、化工厂和其他“工业基础设施”,但规模远不及中国、韩国、日本。

China had vast steel mills and chemical plants and other “heavy industries” going back to the 1960s was underutilized or utilized very inefficiently. But as soon as economic reform policies were implemented and the vast industrial infrastructure was put to good use, China’s economy took off.

早在20世纪60年代,中国就有庞大的钢铁厂、化工厂和其他重工业,但改革开放之前,这些庞大的工业设备没有得到充分利用,或者利用效率非常低。但在经济改革政策一经实施之后,庞大的工业基础设施得到合理利用,中国经济就起飞了。

Vietnam can NEVER have in place the vast industrial infrastructure already had in place in the 1980s when China “took off” economically. THAT is what is going to stop Vietnam from ever matching the “China economic miracle” LET ALONE IN JUST TEN YEARS.

越南永远不可能拥有上世纪80年代中国经济起飞时所具备的庞大工业基础设施,这就是阻止越南赶上“中国经济奇迹”的原因,更别说10年了。

Now why the Vietnam youth strongly believe in the “will catch up in ten years” is the exact same reason that india youth believe that “india will be a superpower in 2030”: Vietnam and indian youth HAVE BEEN TOLD OVER AND OVER AND OVER AND OVER BY THEIR GOVERNMENTS THAT “vietnam will be china by the 2030s” AND “india will surpass the United States by 2030!”

现在,为什么越南年轻人坚信“将在10年内赶上”,这和印度年轻人相信“印度将在2030年成为超级大国”的原因是一样的:越南和印度的年轻人被他们的政府一遍又一遍地告知“越南将在2030年成为中国”和“印度将在2030年超越美国!”

BOTH the Vietnam and indian government have in their interests to keep telling their young people that the future of their country is going be golden BECAUSE VIETNAM AND iNDIA WANT TO KEEP THEIR YOUNG PEOPLE DISTRACTED FROM THE PRESENT WHERE THERE IS HIGH UNEMPLOYMENT BY YOUNG PEOPLE. By keeping their young peoples attention “on the golden future” the Vietnamese and indian governments can thus get their young people to forget their miserable present lives.

越南和印度政府为了他们的利益不断告诉他们的年轻人,他们国家的未来将是辉煌的,因为越南和印度想让他们的年轻人从高失业率的现状中转移注意。通过让他们的年轻人关注“辉煌未来”,越南和印度政府可以让他们的年轻人忘记他们现在悲惨的生活。

“mighty india” suffers from the same issue that Vietnam suffers from but with a one BILLION 380 MILLION people problem: “mighty india” does NOT have a large industrial infrastructure and thus has no path to lift one BILLION 300 MILLION indians out their largely poor rural lives: an “INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION” that is NEEDED to transform indian society.

“强大的印度”面临着与越南相同的问题,“强大的印度”没有大型的工业基础设施,因此没有办法让13亿印度人摆脱基本脱贫的农村生活,所有印度社会需要一场改造经济的工业革命。

What people who have no concept of economics don’t understand is that China is RIGHT NOW going through its “INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION” and that is why China has gone from a nation where 80% of the Chinese people where farmers to today where 60+% of Chinese live in cities where they work in factories or in other industrial jobs in the cities. THIS IS WHY CHINA IS HEADED TO BECOMING A “wealthy modern advanced nation” like Europe and North America and Japan and South Korea.

没有经济学概念的人是不明白的——中国现在正在经历“工业革命”,这就是为什么中国从曾经农村人占80%,发展到今天城镇人口占60%以上,他们在工厂工作或者在城市里从事其他工业工作,中国正朝着像欧洲、北美、日本和韩国那样的“富裕的现代先进国家”迈进。

Without that “INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION” for their societies, both Vietnam and india can only hope to become “middle income” nations like Brazil and Thailand and Iran.

如果没有工业革命,越南和印度只能希望成为像巴西、泰国和伊朗那样的“中等收入”国家。


中国经济下行?为什么越南人有底气10年赶上中国?看看网友回答

越南网友Hoang Pham的回答

There are many similarities between China and Vietnam, but at the same time they are very different. It is reasonable to say that Vietnam’s economy is the next China, but I don’t think so,China’s population is 15 times larger than Vietnam’s.

中国和越南有很多相似之处,但同时也有很大的不同,说越南经济是下一个中国有一定的道理,但我不这样认为。要明白中国人口是越南的15倍。

You may have noticed that I listed only one difference, and yes, I did so intentionally. The main reason why Vietnam can’t become the next China is because Vietnam doesn’t have as much population potential as China.

你或许已经注意到我只列举了一项差异之处,没错,我是有意的。为什么越南无法成为下一个中国的主要因素是因为越南没有中国那么大的人口红利。

Although Vietnam has a large population, its labor force cannot grow as much as China’s, considering the size of Vietnam’s land. In fact, it is often argued that the main reason China has been so successful economically is purely because of its massive billion-plus population.

虽然越南拥有很多的人口,但考虑到越南的土地规模,越南的劳动力无法像中国那样的增长。事实上,人们经常认为,中国之所以在经济上如此成功的主要原因,纯粹是因为它及其庞大的十几亿人口。

I think Vietnam’s economy can definitely achieve great development, but I doubt if Vietnam’s economy can match China’s size. I think Vietnam will become a mini Version of China.

我认为越南经济肯定可以获得巨大的发展,但我对越南经济规模能否与中国相匹敌表示怀疑,我认为越南会成为迷你版的中国。

In other words, even though Vietnam’s economy is not as big as China’s, it can certainly be as prosperous and successful as China’s given its size.

换句话说,尽管经济规模无法和中国相比,但考虑到越南的规模,肯定可以像中国一样繁荣成功。

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