扒车喵近日，在海外版知乎平台Quora上，有美国网友问到：若美国停止从中国进口所有商品和服务，会发生什么?这真是一个有意思的问题，许多人都提出了自己大胆的猜想。
问题：若美国停止从中国进口所有商品和服务，会发生什么?
塔汝尼：前华尔街投资人
There is nothing else except that everything will become more expensive.You see, China makes half of the world’s products, and its biggest trading partner is the European Union, not the United States.Two things will happen if America stops importing all goods and services:
除了一切都会变得更贵之外，没有什么别的了。你看，中国制造了世界上一半的产品，它最大的贸易伙伴是欧盟，而不是美国。如果美国停止进口所有商品和服务，将会发生两件事:
The United States will work hard to be self-sufficient.If the iPhone cost $6 to make in China, it was $60 in the US.As a result, the cost of living for American consumers will rise, from iPhone to plastic spoons, from toys to clothing; this will cause inflation.
美国将努力实现自给自足。假如iPhone在中国的制造成本是6美元，在美国是60美元。因此，美国消费者的生活成本将上升，从iPhone到塑料勺，从玩具到服装;这会引起通货膨胀。
At the same time, all smart national businessmen in Europe, Asia and Latin America will establish an arbitrage mechanism. —— buys goods from China, label themselves, resell them to the United States, and receive a 20% discount.I am sure that our European and Asian friends will be happy to have the opportunity to make money easily.Oh, and don’t you like it?How will you stop, say, seven billion others on the planet from taking advantage of this simple opportunity to make money?
与此同时，欧洲、亚洲和拉丁美洲所有聪明的国家商人将建立套利机制——从中国购买商品，贴上自己的标签，转售给美国，并获得20%的折扣。我相信我们的欧洲和亚洲朋友会很高兴有机会轻松赚到钱。哦，你不喜欢?你将如何阻止，比如说，地球上其他70亿人利用这个简单的机会赚钱?
The basis of thinking about this issue is built on a global trade network.Now the US has voluntarily cut off one of the routes, which will increase the load on all the other trade routes.Since you didn’t stopped Chinese exports, you just blocked US imports, the result is higher consumer costs because now it pays from indirect trade routes rather than cheaper direct trade routes.
思考这个问题的基础是建立在一个全球性的贸易网络。现在美国主动掐断了其中一条航线，这将增加其他所有贸易航线的负荷。既然你没有阻止中国的出口，你只是阻止了美国的进口，那么结果就是美国将会有更高的消费成本，因为现在它从间接贸易途径而不是更便宜的直接贸易途径支付货款。
罗伯特·奎克先生 前金融机构雇员
From an American perspective:
They need to find manufacturers from other countries that can produce the same products as China at a relatively similar cost, time, and efficiency.In the next few years, many products in different industries will become more expensive due to a supply shortage, until new supplies come from other countries.Big companies will generate less sales in the U. S. and China, while spending will increase.China could ban U. S. companies from entering the Chinese market, and vice versa.This may either be permanent or temporary.
从美国的角度来看:
他们需要从其他国家找到能够以相对相似的成本、时间和效率生产出与中国相同产品的制造商。在未来几年里，由于供应短缺，不同行业的许多产品将变得更加昂贵，直到有新的供应来自其他国家。大公司在美国和中国的销售收入将会减少，而支出将会增加。中国可能会禁止美国公司进入中国市场，反之亦然。这可能是永久的，也可能是暂时的。
SMEs had to find new suppliers and manufacturers for their products.I think they will be the hardest hit.Self-employed sellers / self-employed people who sell goods on Amazon, ebay, instagram, youtube, and other e-commerce / social media sites need to find jobs if they fail to find new products that can be sold quickly.They will also be hit hard, and unemployment will increase.
中小企业不得不为其产品寻找新的供应商和制造商。我认为他们将会受到最严重的打击。在亚马逊、ebay、instagram、youtube和其他电子商务/社交媒体网站上销售商品的个体卖家/个体经营者，如果找不到可以快速销售的新产品，就需要找到工作。他们也将受到沉重打击，失业将会增加。
From a Chinese perspective:
Chinese manufacturers and suppliers will need to find new customers / customers in other markets, mainly Asia, Africa and South America, to replace the U. S. market.As manufacturing gradually shifts to the service industry, domestic demand needs to be increased.
从中国的角度来看:
中国制造商和供应商将需要在其他市场寻找新的客户/客户，主要是亚洲、非洲和南美，以取代美国市场。随着制造业向服务业逐渐转变，需要增加内需。
Low-tech manufacturers may go to other countries to build similar factories to exploit low-cost labor.If enough customers are not found, manufacturers have to shrink or change the production line based on demand.
低技术的制造商可能会去其他国家建立类似的工厂，以利用低成本的劳动力。如果找不到足够的客户，制造商不得不根据需求缩小或改变生产线。
The positive impact of decoupling: national security risks in both countries are minimized.If their economy declines as fast as their covering up mistakes or negligence, they cannot blame each other.
脱钩带来的积极影响:两国的国家安全风险被降至最低。如果他们的经济下滑的速度和他们的掩盖错误或疏忽的速度一样快，那就不能互相指责对方。
Negative impact: A considerable number of American and Chinese companies will file for bankruptcy.Unemployment will rise in both countries.Economic growth will be constrained, and perhaps stagnate, in the next few years, perhaps ten or twenty.Global inflation will rise as the U. S. tries to maintain its dollar dominance, while China tries to develop and grow its yuan as the first or second reserve currency.It will be the toughest time in the world!
负面影响:将有相当多的美国和中国企业申请破产。两国的失业率都将上升。经济增长将受到限制，也许会停滞，在未来几年，也许是十年或二十年。随着美国试图保持其美元的主导地位，而中国试图发展和增长其人民币作为第一或第二储备货币，全球通胀将会上升。这将是世界上最艰难的时光!
You might think that removing China from this equation would bring more jobs to the US and thus “help” the US economy.People who have this logic just ignore half the situation.Yes, such a move will bring manufacturing jobs back to the US, but what about those who aren’t working in manufacturing?American factory workers will undoubtedly be happy because their income and job prospects are better now.But for others, their daily supplies (clothes, appliances, electronics, furniture, tools, etc.) will be more expensive, probably many times more expensive.So actually, such a policy would increase manufacturers ‘revenue while reducing others’ disposable income.
你可能会认为，将中国从这个等式中移除，将为美国带来更多的就业机会，从而“帮助”美国经济。拥有这种逻辑的人只是忽略了一半的情况。是的，这样的举措将把制造业工作岗位带回美国，但那些不在制造业工作的人怎么办?美国的工厂工人无疑会很高兴，因为他们的收入和工作前景现在都更好了。但对于其他人来说，他们的日常用品(衣服、电器、电子产品、家具、工具等)将会更贵，可能要贵很多倍。所以实际上，这样的政策会增加制造商的收入，同时减少其他人的可支配收入。
In fact, American companies will also begin to be affected, as China also makes many intermediate products, such as steel, building materials, and building modules.If these all became more expensive, it would greatly increase the cost of producing goods, maintaining equipment, and building infrastructure.All of this means that American worker hiring will stall and economic growth will slow.
事实上，美国企业也将开始受到影响，因为中国也制造了很多中间产品，比如钢铁、建筑材料、建筑模块等。如果这些都变得更加昂贵，它将大大提高生产商品、维护设备和建设基础设施的成本。所有这些都意味着，美国工人的招聘将停滞，经济增长将放缓。
Finally, from a Chinese perspective, the absence of the U. S. market as an export site means that Chinese workers will earn much less.That means their disposable income will also decrease, so they will their purchases, especially those imported from the U. S. because American-made goods are more expensive.In other words, stopping trade with China is a double-edged sword; the U. S. will stop importing Chinese goods, but will also significantly reduce its own export potential
最后，从中国的角度来看，没有美国市场作为出口地点意味着中国工人的收入将大大减少。这意味着他们的可支配收入也会减少，因此他们会减少购买商品，尤其是那些从美国进口的商品，因为美国制造的商品更贵。换句话说，停止与中国的贸易是一把双刃剑;美国将停止进口中国商品，但也会大幅降低其自身的出口潜力
You see, it’s always tricky to make economic policy because there is no policy that benefits 100% for all.It is always a trade-off.Would you like to reduce the quality of life of most Americans in order to help American manufacturers?If so, then go and do it.
你看，在制定经济政策时总是很棘手，因为根本没有对所有人100%有利的政策。这总是一种权衡。你愿意为了帮助美国制造商而降低大多数美国人的生活质量吗?如果是这样，那就去做吧。
