欢迎光临喵站
吃瓜,学习,涨姿势

印网友问:印度到2025年可以达到中国今天的发展水平吗?专家:难

关于中国的新闻和资讯频繁见诸印度媒体报道之上,印度网友对中国日新月异的发展感到惊异,有人在问答网站Quora上问道:印度到2025年可以达到中国今天的发展水平吗?这个问题引来各国网友的热议,从发展差距到经济体制差异,他们应用翔实的经济数据和理论针对该问题专门撰文进行了专业的剖析和解答。

印网友问:印度到2025年可以达到中国今天的发展水平吗?专家:难

问题:印度到2025年能达到中国今天的发展水平吗?

印网友问:印度到2025年可以达到中国今天的发展水平吗?专家:难

印度官员西开普•库鲁的回答

Many Indians may think that China and India are both developing countries. There may be some gaps between the two countries, but the gap is not that big.

很多印度人也许认为中国和印度都是发展中国家,可能两国之间存在一些差距,但差距并没有那么大。

Modern China and India were established almost at the same time and had the same population; In recent years, India’s GDP growth rate is faster than that of China, and China began reform 10 years earlier than India. Therefore, India only lags behind China for 10 years, and with India’s other advantages, India can surpass China around 2025. Even if India cannot surpass China by 2025, India can reach China’s current level (2020) at least by 2025.

现代中国和印度几乎同时建立并拥有差不多的人口,由于近年来印度的GDP增长速度快于中国,而中国比印度早10年开始改革,因此印度最多也就落后中国10年,并且凭借印度的其他优势,印度可以在2025年左右超越中国。即使印度不能在2025年前超过中国,印度至少可以在2025年达到中国目前(2020年)的水平。

However, looking at problems with emotion often leads to wrong conclusions. Data will not deceive people. We need to think with data. Let’s see how big the current gap between the two countries is, and then you can judge whether India can catch up with the current China by 2025.

但是带着感情看问题往往会得出错误的结论,数据不会骗人,我们需要用数据来思考,让我们看看两国目前的差距有多大,然后你就可以判断到2025年印度能否赶上当前的中国。

1: By 2019, the number of “Fortune Global 500 enterprises” in China and India will be 129 and 7 respectively, with a gap of 129 / 7 = 18.4 times

1:到2019年,中国和印度的“财富世界500强企业”数量分别为129家和7家,差距为129/7=18.4倍

2: In 2018, China’s and India’s foreign exchange reserves were US $3.1 trillion and US $0.39 trillion respectively, so the gap is 3.1 / 0.39 = 7.9 times

2:2018年中国和印度的外汇储备分别为3.1万亿美元和0.39万亿美元,所以差距是3.1/0.39=7.9倍

3: There are 1.38 million patent applications in China and 46000 patent applications in India, with a gap of 1.38 million / 46000 = 30 times

3:中国专利申请总量138万件,印度专利申请总量4.6万件,差距138万件/4.6万件=30倍

4: The total number of industrial designs in China and India in 2020 is 630400 and 17800 respectively, so the gap is 63.04 / 1.78 = 35.4 times

4:中国和印度2020年的工业设计总数分别为63.04万和1.78万件,因此差距为63.04/1.78=35.4倍

5. In 2019, the total mileage of subway tracks in China and India is 5100km and 400km respectively, so the gap is 5100 / 400 = 12.7 times

5.2019年,中国和印度的地铁轨道总里程分别为5100公里和400公里,因此差距为5100/400=12.7倍

6: In 2018, the total exports of China and India were US $2.66 trillion and US $0.53 trillion respectively. So the gap is 2.66 / 0.53 = 5 times

6:2018年中国和印度的出口总额分别为2.66和0.53万亿美元。所以差距是2.66/0.53=5倍

7: In 2020, the GDP of China and India will be USD 14.7 trillion and USD 2.68 trillion respectively, so the gap is 14.7 / 2.68 = 5.4 times

7:2020年中国和印度的GDP分别为14.7和2.68万亿美元,所以差距是14.7/2.68=5.4倍

8: By 2019, the steel production of India and China will be 100 million tons and 900 million tons respectively, so the gap is 0.9 / 0.1 = 9 times.

8:到2019年,印度和中国的钢铁产量分别为1亿吨和9亿吨,因此,差距为0.9/0.1=9倍

9: In 2018, the renewable energy output of China and India was 1.837 billion MW and 261 million MW respectively, so the gap is 1.837/0.261 = 7 times, and the data comparison in the past two years has further expanded

9:2018年,中国和印度的可再生能源产量分别为18.37亿兆瓦和2.61亿兆瓦,所以差距是1.837/0.261=7倍,近两年的数据对比更是进一步扩大

10: The annual car sales in China and India are 29.1 million and 4 million respectively, so the gap is 29.1 / 4 = 7.3 times

10:中国和印度每年的汽车销量分别为2910万辆和400万辆,所以差距是29.1/4=7.3倍

11: The annual R & D expenditure of China and India is US $451.9 billion and US $66.5 billion respectively, so the gap is 451.9 / 66.5 = 6.8 times

11:中国和印度每年的研发支出分别为4519亿美元和665亿美元,所以差距是451.9/66.5=6.8倍

12: China accounts for 10 of the world’s top 20 ports and 7 of the top 10 ports. India does not have a single port on the list

12:在世界前20个港口中,中国占10个,在前10个港口中占7个。印度没有一个港口在名单上

13: In 2017, China and India attracted 63 million and 10 million foreign tourists respectively. So the gap is 63 / 10 = 6.3 times

13:2017年,中国和印度分别吸引了6300万和1000万外国游客。所以差距是63/10=6.3倍

China is one belt, one road, and the world’s second largest economy in 2019. The four largest banks in the world are all owned by China. China is leading 137 countries to join the “one belt road” project, establishing more than 100 Asian investment banks, competing with the world bank, building iron roads, highways, stadiums, skyscrapers, subway, dams, and other countries all over the world. Canal… China has also cultivated international companies such as Alibaba, Tencent, Tik, DJI, Lenovo, Xiaomi and Huawei, and led the world in the latest advanced technologies such as artificial intelligence and electric vehicles, let alone manufacturing.

此外,2019年,中国是世界第二大经济体,世界上四大银行都归中国所有,中国还在领导137个国家加入“一带一路”工程,建立由100多个国家加入的亚投行,与世界银行竞争,在世界各地修建铁路、公路、体育场、摩天大厦、地铁、大坝、运河……中国还培育了阿里巴巴、腾讯、蒂克、DJI、联想、小米、华为等国际公司,并在人工智能和电动汽车等最新先进技术方面引领世界,更不用说制造业了。

The above indicators are important economic indicators. There are other indicators, too many, I can’t list them one by one. It should be noted that the above data (except the first data) do not include Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan. If these three places are added, the gap between China and India will be greater (for example, Hong Kong’s exports alone will exceed that of India as a whole).

以上指标均为重要的经济指标。还有其他指标,数量太多,我不能一一列出。需要注意的是,上述数据(除了第一个数据)不包括香港、澳门和台湾。如果增加这三个地方,中国和印度之间的差距将更大(例如香港单独出口就超过整个印度)。

It should be noted that India’s economic growth rate may not be able to maintain a relatively rapid growth rate in the future. For example, the National Bank of India lowered its quarterly growth forecast for India up to September 2020 to 4.2% – 4.7%. In 2020, India’s GDP growth rate is likely to be lower than that of China. If India’s economic growth rate cannot even surpass that of China, how can we surpass it as a whole. Perhaps in terms of per capita GDP, China is still a developing country, but China is a very special example. Its global economic and political influence is not only stronger than any developing country, but also stronger than most developed countries, second only to the United States.

需要注意的是,印度的经济增长率在未来可能无法保持相对较快的增长速度。例如,印度国家银行将截至2020年9月的季度印度增长预测下调至4.2%-4.7%。2020年,印度的GDP增长率很可能低于中国。如果印度的经济增长率甚至都不能超过中国,何谈在整体上进行超越。也许按人均GDP计算,中国仍然是一个发展中国家,但中国是一个非常特殊的例子,其全球经济和政治影响力不仅比任何发展中国家都强,而且比大多数发达国家都强,仅次于美国。

Therefore, 2025 is only five years away. Do you think India can achieve the above development in five years?

因此,离2025年只有5年了。你认为印度能在5年内实现上述发展吗?


印网友问:印度到2025年可以达到中国今天的发展水平吗?专家:难

印度学者苏博德•马瑟的回答

In the 1970s, when our population began to rise rapidly, the Indian government did not realize that rapidly upgrading the level of low-end manufacturing industry was the key to crossing the first stage of development – from a poor country to a middle-income country, which caused the dilemma of India’s development today. For those who often compare India with China, This is a very relevant issue. Next, I will talk about India’s shortcomings from three dimensions:

在20世纪70年代,当我们的人口开始急速攀升时,印度政府还未意识到快速提升低端制造业的层次是跨越第一个发展阶段的关键——从一个穷国迈向中等收入国家,以至于造成了今日印度发展的窘况,对于那些经常比较印度和中国的人来说,这是一个非常相关的问题。下面,我将从三个维度谈谈印度的缺陷:

The primary task of economic development is to establish a feasible economic model.

经济发展的首要任务是建立一个可行的经济模式。

China’s economic reform was earlier than India’s. China’s economic development model is very special in the world and can not be copied in the future, that is, fixed asset investment – export growth – reinvestment. A more specific description is: huge infrastructure investment – attracting foreign investment – expanding import and export – expanding employment – stimulating domestic demand – all-round economic development.

中国的经济改革要早于印度。中国的经济发展模式在世界上来讲是非常特殊的,从未来看也是不可复制的, 即固定资产投资―出口增长―再投资,更具体的描述则是:巨额基础设施投资―吸引外资―扩大进出口―扩大就业―拉动内需―全面经济发展。

印网友问:印度到2025年可以达到中国今天的发展水平吗?专家:难

印度纺织业

India’s economic development after 1991 is completely another model. At the beginning of India’s reform in 1991, the problem it faced was that its infrastructure construction was far behind that of East Asian countries, and more than 50% of its population was illiterate. At the same time, India’s elite inherited the proficient English thinking and financial tradition from the British.

1991年之后的印度经济发展则完全是另一套模式,1991年印度改革之初,它所面对的问题是其基础设施建设远远落后于东亚国家,超过50%的人口属于文盲。 同时,印度的精英阶层从英国人手中继承了纯熟的英语思维以及金融传统。

Based on this situation, the Indian economy finally chose the service industry rather than the manufacturing industry as the breakthrough. In the early stage of the reform, the focus was mainly on the software industry. Later, using its deep financial tradition, India established a very perfect financial market. Compared with China, India’s economic development model can be described as follows: focusing on the development of service industry – using the developed financial market to stimulate international capital to enter the domestic capital market – stimulating consumption – stimulating manufacturing industry – stimulating infrastructure construction – all-round economic development.

基于这种状况,印度经济最终选择以服务业而非制造业作为突破口,改革前期的重点主要放在了软件业,之后利用其比较深厚的金融传统,印度建立起了十分完善的金融市场。相比较于中国,印度的经济发展模式可以做这样的描述:重点发展服务业―利用金融市场的发达刺激国际资本进入本国资本市场―刺激消费―拉动制造业―拉动基础设施建设―经济全面发展。

Compared with China, the essence of India’s economic model is a jumping development model – Indians try to directly cross the manufacturing stage from the traditional agricultural economy to the service-oriented stage. However, any jumping behavior is bound to lack stability, and India’s economy is no exception. In recent years, the continuous and rapid growth of trade deficit has further amplified the instability of Indian economy. At the same time, the development of manufacturing industry has always been unavoidable.

相对于中国,印度经济模式的实质就是一种跳跃式的发展模式――印度人试图从传统农业经济直接跨过制造业阶段进入以服务业为主的阶段,然而,任何跳跃形式的行为都必然会在稳定性上有所欠缺,印度经济也不会例外。近年来连续高速增长的贸易逆差进一步放大了印度经济的不稳定性,同时,制造业的发展问题始终是无法回避的。

The second focus of economic development is the investment in human capital.

经济发展需要的第二个重点就是对人力资本的投资。

People can’t help but think of the reforms carried out by India to improve its education, health care and labor skills, as the government and the media have always advocated: since independence, India’s health care and education have made substantial progress. There is no doubt that we have realized the original plan. But when we tied our achievements with China, we were dwarfed. Looking at the number of patents they (China) apply for every year, they even surpass the United States in some fields. Compared with China, India is far away.

人们不禁会想到印度为改善其教育、医疗、劳动力技能等而进行的改革,以及政府和媒体一直宣扬的那样:自独立以来印度的医疗卫生和教育已经取得了实质性的进步,毫无疑问,我们已经实现了当初的规划。但当我们把成果与中国并列时,我们就相形见绌了。看看他们(中国)每年申请的专利数量,在某些领域甚至超过了美国,印度与中国相比相比,更是弗如远甚。

The importance of human capital investment cannot be overemphasized. The United States, South Korea, Japan and China are all growing. The initial stage of construction is to pursue the accumulation of human capital. Sadly, we in India have been doing nothing in this regard. Another thing China can successfully do is to attract overseas Chinese to return home and use their professional knowledge and skills to promote economic, scientific and technological progress and development.

人力资本投资的重要性怎么强调也不过分。美国、韩国、日本、中国,每个国家都在成长建设的最初阶段都是追求人力资本的积累。可悲的是,我们印度在这方面一直无所事事。中国能够成功地做的另一件事是吸引侨民回国,并利用他们的专业知识和技能推动经济和科技的进步和发展。

The third point that needs attention in economic development is to ensure the improvement of competitiveness.

经济发展需要关注的第三点是是确保提高竞争力。

In terms of competitiveness, India is far behind. Recently, I was reading Arvind panagariya’s India Infinity: recovering lost glory. He gave a concise example. In his own words, “if a household appliance, such as air conditioner or TV, needs maintenance, domestic companies in India usually send two or more workers to the door, but only one person is really doing the repair work, while the other is either carrying a bag or doing nothing, which is a great waste of human resources.” And this is just an example of the serious decline in productivity due to the abuse of our labor force.

在竞争力方面,印度远远落后。最近,我在读Arvind Panagariya的《印度无限:找回失去的荣耀》,他简洁地举了一个例子。用他自己的话来说,“如果一个家用电器,如空调或电视需要维修,在印度家政公司通常会派两个或更多的工人上门,但只有一人真正的在做修理工作,而另一家要么拎包要么无所事事,这是对人力资源极大地浪费。”而这只是我们滥用劳动力以至于生产率严重下降的一个例子。

印网友问:印度到2025年可以达到中国今天的发展水平吗?专家:难

印度火车

And what is China doing? With the promotion of the opening-up policy, they are committed to transferring the agricultural labor force to the manufacturing industry, encouraging migrant workers to learn skills and providing corresponding learning conditions, which India can not do at present, which will help people engage in higher paid jobs and realize the optimization and upgrading of the industry. They also ensure that countries expand rather than reduce openness and deregulate enterprises, so as to make domestic enterprises more competitive and increase exports, so as to achieve greater growth, which will help them benefit from and consolidate this advantage from the rapid development of globalization.

而中国在做什么?随着开放政策的推进,他们正致力于让农业劳动力转移到制造业,鼓励农民工学习技能,并提供相应的学习条件,而这是印度目前无法做到的,这有助于人们从事报酬更高的工作,实现产业的优化和升级。他们还确保国家扩大而不是减少开放,给企业松绑,从而使国内企业更具竞争力,增加出口,从而实现更大的增长,这有助于他们从迅速发展的全球化中获益并巩固这一优势。

Now let’s talk about India’s much touted “demographic dividend”. Here, a large and educated population, cheap labor force and talented people have no value. Unless you provide them with opportunities to broaden their horizons and improve their personal quality, no country can prosper by plundering the due welfare of its citizens. Therefore, in this sense, India should make some fundamental changes to its economic prospects and learn from those countries that have made changes, such as China.

现在,来谈谈印度备受吹捧的“人口红利”。在这里,庞大又受过一定教育的人口、廉价的劳动力和天赋异禀的人才却没有任何价值,除非你为他们提供机会,拓宽他们的视野,提高他们的个人素质,没有一个国家能够通过掠夺其公民应有的福利而繁荣起来。因此,从这个意义上说,印度应该对其经济前景做出一些根本性的改变,并向那些做出改变的国家学习,比如中国。

赞(0)
版权声明:本文采用知识共享 署名4.0国际许可协议 [BY-NC-SA] 进行授权
文章名称:《印网友问:印度到2025年可以达到中国今天的发展水平吗?专家:难》
文章链接:https://www.bachemiao.com/201003.html
本站资源仅供个人学习交流,请于下载后24小时内删除,不允许用于商业用途,否则法律问题自行承担。

业余吃瓜,理性学习,发现美的世界

小清新扒车教育

登录

找回密码

注册