扒车喵随着中国国际地位越来越高，中国的企业也在越南遍地开花，影响着越南人生活的方方面面，越南网友在海外问答网站Quora上提问道：越南和中国曾一样贫穷落后，二者差距是怎样拉大的？这个问题引起各国网友的热议，我们看看各国网友是怎样看待这个现象的。
问题：越南和中国曾一样贫穷落后，二者差距是怎样拉大的？
美国网友唐纳德•坎托纳的回答
If young people in Vietnam can realize this, it really bodes well.
如果越南的年轻人能意识到这一点，这真是个好兆头。
Today’s Vietnamese young people have stronger confidence and lofty aspirations. They hope they can make a difference and help their country progress. Compared with delusion and denial, it is more beneficial for this country to accept the fact that China is ahead and take action to set specific goals to be achieved.
现在的越南年轻人有了更加雄厚的信心和远大抱负，希望自己能有所作为，帮助自己的国家进步。相对于妄想和否认，接受中国领先的事实，行动起来制定要实现的具体目标对这个国家更加有益。
Vietnam has a large population, a favorable geographical environment and great potential, but it seems to brew a lot of nationalist anger and depression internally. They tend to feel the unfairness of the world: frequent wars, American sanctions, poor governance, nepotism and corruption. They indulge in the macro narrative of the world. It is difficult to do anything because the distance is too far. We young people in Vietnam should be more pragmatic and move forward on this basis.
越南人口众多，地缘环境优渥，潜力巨大，但在内部似乎酝酿了大量的民族主义的愤怒和沮丧情绪，他们倾向于感受这个世界的不公平：战争频仍，美国制裁，治理不善，裙带关系和腐败，他们沉溺于这个世界的宏观叙事之中，因为距离太远，所以难有作为。我们越南的年轻人应该更加务实，在此基础上继续前进。
Vietnam has always been open to the outside world. Many countries now invest in Vietnam, especially Japan, South Korea, ASEAN, China, the United States and the European Union.
越南对外开放的大门一直对外敞开着，许多国家现在在越南投资，特别是日本、韩国、东盟、中国、美国、欧盟等。
This is an unexpected gain from the trade war between China and the United States. More factories have been transferred to Vietnam. It is a bit like the situation when China just opened to the outside world. A large number of foreign capital entered, factories rose, people’s wages increased rapidly, and the prosperity of the real estate market led to the rapid development of infrastructure.
这是中国和美国贸易战带来的意外收获，更多的工厂转移到越南。有点像中国刚刚对外开放时的情景，外资大量进入，工厂拔地而起，人们的工资快速增长，房地产市场的繁荣带动着基础设施的快速发展。
But you say there is a 10-year gap between Vietnam and China? I don’t think so.
但是你说越南和中国有10年的差距？我不这么认为。
GDP:
国内生产总值：
• 55 times the difference. China is $14.7 trillion and Vietnam is $241 billion.
•相差55倍。中国为14.7万亿美元，越南为2410亿美元。
• population – China has 15 times more population than Vietnam.
•人口——中国比越南多15倍。
• in addition to population and absolute GDP, the relative scale of resources and international influence is far from being comparable.
•除了人口和绝对GDP，在资源和国际影响力方面，二者相对规模更是天壤之别，无法相提并论。
GDP per capita: the only meaningful indicator that Vietnam is catching up with. However, Vietnam is one third of China’s per capita GDP (this is a paper figure) and one of the lower countries in ASEAN.
人均GDP：是越南正在追赶的唯一有意义的指标。然而，越南是中国人均GDP的1/3（这是纸面上的数字），也是东盟中较低的国家之一。
China has become an extremely complex and advanced super large economy. Vietnam’s economic strength and scientific research strength are far from China. When we refer to the development experience of China’s highly developed first tier urban economic zones and their industrial zones, we will find that their model has been quite mature and has long left Vietnam far behind.
中国已经成为一个极其复杂而又先进的超大型经济体，越南的经济实力和科研力量离中国相差太远。当我们参考中国极为发达的一线城市经济区及其工业区的发展经验时，会发现其模式已经相当成熟，早已经把越南远远地甩在了后边。
How the economy develops is something that the government should worry about, but as an outsider, I would like to share my views. I think Vietnam needs a more efficient government to reduce internal strife and corruption.
经济如何发展是政府应该操心的事，但作为局外人我想说说我的观点。我觉得越南需要一个更加高效的政府，减少内斗和腐败。
The policy system should be planned and implemented by more capable, shrewd and learned people in the government. No matter what complaints people have about China, it is undeniable that she has an excellent elite management system and establishes a reasonable mechanism for excellent talents to govern the country.
政策制度应该由政府中更有能力、更精明、有学问的人来计划和执行，不管人们对中国有什么抱怨，不可否认的是，她有一套极佳的精英管理制度，建立合理的机制让优秀的人才治理国家。
Cooperation with anyone, including China and the United States, should be more pragmatic and less nationalistic. Being adjacent to China is a great advantage for Vietnam. Vietnamese young people have the responsibility to build more bridges and give full play to Vietnam’s potential through cooperation.
与任何人合作，包括中国和美国，都要更加务实，少一些民族主义，毗邻中国对越南来说是一大优势，越南年轻人有责任架起更多的桥梁，通过合作发挥越南的潜力。
The trade war between China and the United States has brought opportunities to Vietnam, but opportunities and windfalls cannot exist forever.
中美贸易战给越南带来了机遇，但机会和意外之财不可能永远存在。
Vietnamese should seize this opportunity to form a development momentum comparable to that of Malaysia and Thailand. China is planning to achieve its 2049 century goal and wants to surpass China? Let this become the dream of the next generation. I hope the new generation of young people can get rid of the burden of history and start again.
越南人应该抓住这个机会，形成与马来西亚和泰国水平相当的发展势头，中国正在计划实现自己的2049百年目标，想超越中国？让这成为下一代的梦想吧，希望新一代年轻人可以摆脱历史包袱，重新出发。
英国网友米歇尔•贾丁的回答
Of course not. The prediction of a decade behind is too optimistic. China is an industrialized country with a complete industrial chain.
当然不是，落后十年的预测已经过于乐观了，中国可是一个拥有完整产业链的工业化国家。
This means that China can build anything from beginning to end. Chinese enterprises can manufacture and sell almost everything from giant super cargo tankers and giant container ships to all kinds of precision equipment.
这意味着中国可以从头到尾建造任何东西，中国企业可以制造并向海外销售的商品，大到巨型超级货运油轮和巨型集装箱船，小到各种精密设备，几乎应有尽有。
China can produce trains, buses, trucks, cars and any kind of consumer goods on a large scale, while Vietnam can’t.
中国可以规模化生产火车、公共汽车、卡车、汽车以及任何种类的消费品，而越南还做不到这一点。
Vietnam does have steel mills, chemical plants and other “industrial infrastructure”, but its scale is far less than that of China, South Korea, Japan and even Taiwan.
越南的确拥有钢铁厂、化工厂和其他“工业基础设施”，但规模远不及中国、韩国、日本甚至台湾地区。
As early as the 1960s, China built large iron and steel plants, chemical plants and other “heavy industry” projects, but the huge industrial equipment was not fully utilized or the utilization rate was very low.
早在20世纪60年代，中国就建设有大型钢铁厂、化工厂和其他“重工业”工程，但庞大的工业设备没有得到充分利用，或者利用率非常低。
After the implementation of the economic system reform in 1978, the huge industrial infrastructure was properly utilized, and China’s economy began to take off.
直到1978年经济体制改革实施后，庞大的工业基础设施得到了适当利用，中国经济从此开始起飞。
Vietnam can never have the huge industrialization foundation that China had when its economy “took off” in the 1980s. Therefore, it is impossible for Vietnam to surpass the “Chinese economic miracle” in just a decade.
越南永远不可能拥有20世纪80年代中国经济“起飞”时已经具备的庞大的工业化基础，因此让越南在短短十年内超越“中国经济奇迹”简直是天方夜谭。
The reason why Vietnamese youth firmly believe that “they will catch up with China in ten years” is exactly the same as that of Indian youth who firmly believe that “India will become a superpower in 2025”. Vietnamese and Indian youth are brainwashed by the propaganda of the government and the media: “Vietnam will become a country like China by 2030” and “India will surpass the United States by 2025!”
越南青年坚信“十年后会迎头赶上中国”的原因与印度青年坚信“2025年印度将成为超级大国”的原因完全相同，越南和印度青年被政府和媒体的宣传洗脑了：“到2030年越南将成为中国那样的国家”以及“到2025年，印度将超过美国！”
The governments of Vietnam and India continue to instill in their young people the idea that the future of them and their country is full of hope, because Vietnam and India want to distract their young people from the concerns of high unemployment rate, so that young people can temporarily forget their miserable real life.
越南和印度政府不断向他们的年轻人灌输这样的观念：他们和国家的未来都是充满希望的，因为越南和印度希望让他们的年轻人从高失业率的担忧中转移注意力，从而让年轻人暂时忘记他们悲惨的现实生活。
“Strong India” faces the same problems as Vietnam, but because of its large population, India’s problems are more arduous and complex: “strong India” has no huge industrial infrastructure, so it is impossible to get hundreds of millions of Indians out of poor rural life. Indian society needs a thoroughly transformed “social revolution”.
“强大的印度”面临着与越南相同的问题，但因为人口众多，印度的问题更加艰巨和复杂：“强大的印度”没有庞大的工业基础设施，因此没有办法让数亿印度人摆脱贫穷的农村生活，印度社会需要一场彻底改造的“社会革命。
China has completed the social revolution to a considerable extent and led the trend in the fourth scientific and technological revolution. This is why China can develop from a country with 80% peasant population to today’s urbanization rate of 60%, and the employed population has been smoothly transferred from agriculture to industry and services.
中国已经在相当程度上完成了社会革命，并在第四次科技革命中引领潮流，这就是为什么中国可以从一个农民人口占80%的国家发展到今天城市化率达60%，就业人口被顺利地从农业转移到工业和服务业。
China is moving towards becoming a country like Europe, North America Japan, South Korea and other modern countries.
中国正朝着成为像欧洲、北美、日本和韩国等现代化国家的方向前进。
Without thorough transformation, Vietnam and India can only become middle-income countries such as Brazil, Thailand and Iran.
如果不实施彻底的改造，越南和印度最多只能成为像巴西、泰国和伊朗这样的中等收入国家。
越南网友洪彭的回答
According to China’s past development rate, China’s GDP has increased by US $9 trillion in the past decade (2008-2018). According to the proportion of Vietnam’s population and the previous average growth rate of 7%, if this figure is maintained for 10 years, Vietnam’s GDP can increase by about US $420 billion in the next decade, which may reach the level of China.
根据中国过去的发展速度计算，中国的GDP在过去十年（2008-2018年）增长了9万亿美元，根据越南人口比例和以往的平均增长率7%，如果这个数字保持10年，越南的GDP在未来十年可以增加约4200亿美元，或许可以达到中国的水平。
If the US monetary policy and China’s industrial policy remain unchanged, Vietnam has the opportunity to catch up with China within a decade. Vietnam has the same advantages as China in 2005. Workers have a high level of education, relatively low wages, stable political environment and long-term development policies.
如果美国的货币政策和中国的产业政策不变，越南有机会在十年内赶上中国。越南的优势与2005年的中国相同，工人受教育程度高，工资相对较低，政治环境稳定，发展政策长远。
From the perspective of diplomatic environment, China benefited from the cold war between the United States and the Soviet Union. Vietnam now has a similar position in Sino US relations. These conditions give Vietnam a chance for rapid development. The relatively low population base makes it easier for its per capita GDP to surpass China.
从外交环境来看，中国受益于美苏冷战。现在越南在中美关系中的地位也差不多。这些条件给了越南一个快速发展的机会，相对较低的人口基数使其人均GDP更容易超过中国。
Chinese people often say that there are risks hidden in opportunities and opportunities brewing in risks, but the risks of Vietnam’s development are different from those of China.
中国人常说，机会中隐藏着风险,风险中酝酿着机会，可越南发展的风险与中国不同。
1. Vietnam’s dollar debt is a time bomb. Vietnam’s GDP is not large, but its debt exceeds 60% of GDP. If the Fed changes its quantitative easing policy, the bomb will detonate at any time, and the exchange rate of the Vietnamese Dong may collapse.
1.越南的美元债务是一颗定时炸弹。越南的GDP规模不算大，但债务超过GDP的60%。如果美联储改变其量化宽松政策，这颗炸弹将随时引爆，越南盾的汇率可能崩溃。
2. Education is also a problem. In the stage of basic education, Vietnam has done well, but it seems that there is no complete and forward-looking higher education plan, which makes Vietnam’s economic development lack reserve talents. Among the top 1000 universities in the world, there are 65 in China and none in Vietnam.
2.教育也是一个问题。在基础教育阶段，越南做得很好，但似乎没有完整和具有前瞻性的高等教育计划，这让越南的经济发展缺少后备人才。世界排名前1000名的大学，中国有65个，越南一个也没有。
3. Vietnam’s military controls 10% of its GDP. Vietnam has banned military business since 2017, but the effect is very poor. From China’s experience, military business will directly lead to corruption and become a stumbling block to reform.
3.越南军队控制着本国国内生产总值的10%，越南自2017年开始禁止军队从商，但其效果很差，从中国的经验来看，军工经商将直接导致腐败，成为改革的绊脚石。
4. The cost of artificial intelligence and robots is gradually decreasing. If they replace the workers on the processing line, the advantage of low labor cost in Southeast Asia will no longer exist. Is Vietnam ready?
4.人工智能和机器人的成本正在逐步降低，如果它们取代了加工线上的工人，那么东南亚低劳动成本的优势将不复存在，越南准备好了吗？
I have seen people say that Vietnam does not have the ability to form a complete industrial chain like China. I think Vietnam does not need it. Vietnam only needs to do well in a few industries, just like South Korea and Germany.
我看到有人说越南没有能力像中国那样形成完整的产业链，我认为越南不需要，越南只需要做好少数几个行业就足够了，就像韩国和德国那样。
For now, Vietnam’s reform direction has deviated from the Chinese model and is exploring its own path. Let’s wait and see what the results are.
目前，越南的改革方向已经脱离了中国模式，正在探索自己的道路，结果如何，让我们拭目以待。
