扒车喵疫情和社会撕裂给美国社会正在带来越来越大的危机感，一名美国网友在问答网站Quora上问道：美国会像苏联那样崩溃解体吗？美国知名国际问题专家史蒂文•翰道克认为苏联和美国的情形大不一样，撰文回答了他的问题。
问题：美国会像苏联那样崩溃解体吗？
美国国际问题专家史蒂文•翰道克的回答
No. It will most likely collapse in a completely different way.
不存在的，美国只会以一种完全不同的方式衰落。
The United States will fall from its position as the world’s only superpower, either gradually or suddenly. The United States will stumble back to the so-called “difficult period”, which is almost what it looked like during the economic crisis more than 80 years ago. But in fact, compared with other countries in the world, we are still a big country, still quite strong and closely connected with other countries, although we have no longer been an unchallenged leader in the free world.
美国不会解体，美国将从世界唯一之超级大国的地位上跌落下来，可能是逐渐陨落，过程极为漫长，也可能是突然崩塌。美国将跌跌撞撞地回到所谓的“艰难时期”，差不多是四十多年前经济危机时的模样。但事实上，与世界其他国家相比，我们仍是一个大国，仍然实力强劲，在共同的价值观中，各个州府紧密相连，尽管自此不再是自由世界中一呼百应的领袖。
At that time, the world reserve currency will not be the US dollar, but the euro or RMB, or even some new or virtual currency. Our economy will lag far behind China and the eurozone by one third, and may even lag behind the cooperative economy of another country that does not yet exist. Why? Let’s start with history:
到那时，世界储备货币将不是美元，而是欧元或人民币，甚至可能是某种新的或虚拟的货币，我们的经济将远远落后中国和欧元区三分之一，甚至可能落后于一个尚不存在的国家合作经济体。为什么会这样呢？我们先从历史上说起：
After the independence of the United States, although it can become a new country, people have been used to the “high degree of autonomy” political system. 13 states have a natural vigilance against the U.S. government. They don’t want to be continuously squeezed by the central government, so the power of the central government is greatly limited through the constitution.
美国独立之后，虽然堪堪成为了一个新的国家，但人们已经习惯了“高度自治”政治体制，13个州对美国政府有着天然的警惕，他们不想再被中央政府无休止地压榨了，所以通过宪法对中央的权力进行了极大的限制。
The turning point to truly clarify the power of the central and local governments is the civil war. Textbooks say that the reason for the outbreak of the war is the differences in the abolition of slavery. In fact, the fundamental reason for the start of the civil war is that there are essential differences between the north and the South in their understanding of the American system.
美国内战
真正明确中央和地方政府权力的转折点是南北战争，教科书上说这场战争爆发的原因是在废除奴隶制上的分歧，实际上这次内战开打的根本原因是南北双方关于美国体制的认知有本质上的区别。
The southern states believe that the U.S. government and the states are only equal relations, while the northern states believe that the U.S. government has the final power to interpret the constitution. After a long debate on this issue, both sides refused to compromise and concessions and went straight to work.
南方各州认为，美国政府和各州只是平等的关系，北方各州认为，美国政府对宪法有最终的解释权，围绕着这一问题争论了许久，最终双方都拒不妥协退让，直接开干。
After the outbreak of the war, 30 million people in the United States were involved in the war. The war killed 750000 soldiers, disabled 400000 soldiers and affected an unknown number of civilians. Although the losses were very heavy, the civil war also solved a fundamental problem about the American Constitution: should the States listen to the central government? Since then, the United States has changed from “Confederation” to “federalism”, and the central government and state governments have been moderately decentralized.
战争爆发之后，美国3000万人卷入了战火，战争造成75万士兵死亡，40万士兵伤残，不明数量的平民也遭到波及。虽然损失十分惨重，但这次内战也解决了一个关于美国宪法的根本问题：各州到底要不要听中央的？从那以后，美国就从“邦联制”变成了“联邦制”，中央政府和各州府进行了适度分权，从政府到人民都变得更加自由，虽然这将各州紧密地粘合在一起，但中央到地方，各个种群也就变得更加撕裂。
Novel coronavirus pneumonia is like a mirror. What does the American people see? According to the survey data of Pew Research Center, 77% of Americans surveyed believe that after the epidemic, American society is more torn apart. American analysts pointed out pointedly that the political polarization and social tear in the United States are in the “most serious stage since the end of the civil war”, and the United States is experiencing the “darkest moment” in modern political history. Because we in the United States have great differences in society, geography, economy and race.
自由是一把刀，可以帮你解除束缚，也能杀人见血，置你于死地。新冠肺炎疫情如同一面镜子，美国民众从中看到了什么？美国皮尤研究中心调查数据显示，77%的受访美国人认为经过此次疫情，美国社会更为撕裂。美国分析人士一针见血地指出，美国的政治极化和社会撕裂处在“内战结束以来最严重的阶段”，美国正经历现代政治史上的“至暗时刻”。因为我们美国在社会上、地理上、经济上、种族上都有很大的分歧。
抢劫商店“零元购”
Because of these differences, we cannot agree on the importance of investing in future industries, especially in educating young people to lead these industries. We are quietly being left behind by China and Europe. Although it is hard to say now, because the headquarters of apple and Tesla are still here, and we still have a leading edge, social fragmentation and prejudice are sowing the seeds for our gradual decline.
由于这些分歧，我们无法就发展未来哪些行业的达成一致，特别是在帮助美国年轻人领导这些行业方面。我们正悄悄地被中国和欧洲甩在后面。虽然现在很难说，因为苹果和特斯拉等高科技公司还在这里落地兴业，我们还有领先优势，但社会的割裂与偏见正在为我们的逐渐衰落播下种子。
Our debt is getting heavier and heavier, and there is no sign of slowing down. Most of this comes from extravagance and waste, military overspending and loose taxes on companies and the rich. The combination of extremely low tax rates with many financial loopholes and social welfare is doomed to make this country unable to make ends meet and overburden. Despite the criticism, the welfare of the poor accounts for only a small part of our budget. Congress and government officials represent the interests of only a small number of people. They will not care about the life and death of the poor. Perhaps they can only make a gesture and say a few good words when canvassing votes, that’s all.
我们的债务越来越重，没有任何减缓的迹象。其中大部分来自奢侈浪费、军费超支以及对公司和富人宽松的赋税政策。将极低的税率与许多金融漏洞和社会福利结合在一起，这注定让这个国家入不敷出，不堪重负。尽管备受指责，穷人的福利在我们的预算中只占很小的一部分，国会和政府官员代表的只是一小部分人的利益，他们才不会管穷人的死活，或许只有在拉选票的时候做一下姿态，讲几句好话，仅此而已。
议会斗争
Our government refuses to invest sufficient funds in infrastructure and education to maintain its competitiveness on the world economic stage. China’s infrastructure began to make us tremble, and the technology of Western Europe and Japan made us suffocate.
我们的政府拒绝在基础设施和教育上投入足量的资金，以保持在世界经济舞台上的竞争力。中国的基础设施开始让我们战战兢兢，西欧和日本的技术让我们透不过气。
We do not attach as much importance to investment in the rapidly developing market as China. Africa is an emerging continent and the focus of the next century. China’s investment and loans in Africa are different from those of other countries. They are establishing friendly cooperative relations and connecting and integrating their economy with the African economy as a whole. This means that the future of African resources and cheap labor will belong to them, and we can only pick up some leftovers.
我们不像中国那样重视投资高速发展中的市场。非洲是一个新兴的大陆，是下个世纪的焦点。中国在非洲的投资和贷款与其他国家不同，他们正在建立友善的合作关系，并将其经济与非洲经济整体联系和融合起来。这意味着非洲资源和廉价劳动力的未来将属于他们，而我们只能在一旁捡一些残羹冷炙。
America’s expensive and inefficient medical system has done far more harm to the long-term and healthy development of our economy than we thought. Pharmaceutical giants are competing to raise prices. The people at the bottom are shy. Should they be deterred from medical expenses and wait for death at a loss?
美国昂贵又低效的医疗体系对我们的经济的长期健康发展所造成的伤害远远超过我们的想象，医药巨头竞相坐地起价，底层人民囊中羞涩就活该对着医疗费用望而却步，手足无措地等待着死亡的降临吗？
Our public education system is terrible and getting worse. As the most advanced country on earth, our basic education level is surprisingly low.
我们的公共教育体系糟糕透顶，而且越来越糟糕。作为地球上最先进的国家，我们的基础教育水平出奇地低。
We also have a strange anti intellectualist tendency, which will ensure that it will not improve for a long time. In the current social background and people’s attitude, the United States has a negative attitude towards knowledge and truth. In the United States, extensive public education is not carried out for the purpose of developing intelligence or cultivating learning pride, but for the so-called political and economic interests.
我们还有一个奇怪的反智主义倾向，这将确保在很长很长时间内不会改善。美国现在的社会背景、人民态度中，对待知识真理处于消极态度。在美国，广泛的公共教育并不是以发展智力或培养学习自豪感为其教育目的而开展的，而是为了所谓的政治经济利益。
For decades, our economy has been in a dominant position in the world, and other countries are at our mercy. When children in the third world countries are still concerned about war and food and clothing, we are more concerned about whether our children can become excellent athletes and dancers. Such a life seems to be God given and born, but with the rise of China and other countries, these are being broken.
几十年来，我们在经济在世界上一直处于支配地位，其他国家任由我们宰割。当第三世界国家的孩子还在关心战乱和温饱问题时，我们更关心的是我们的孩子是否能成为优秀的运动员和舞蹈家，这样的生活似乎是上帝赐予，与生俱来的，但随着中国等国家的崛起，这些正被打破。
The White House is constantly withdrawing from various organizations and agreements, and our government and Congress refuse to take basic measures to protect themselves from gun violence and climate change. Our children and grandchildren will shake their heads in hatred of iron and steel and be surprised to find that we are so selfish and destroy the country for no reason when we give it to them together with the bills we owe.
白宫在不断地退出各种组织和协定，我们的政府和国会拒绝采取基本措施保护自己免受枪支暴力和气候变化的影响。我们的子孙们会恨铁不成钢地摇着头，惊讶地发现，我们这一代人把这个国家连同欠下的账单一起送给了他们，我们是如此自私，无缘无故地破坏了这个国家。
In general, we still have the best hospitals and universities in the world, and we provide the most cost-effective way of life. This is a life sustaining agent to slow the decline of the United States, because rich immigrants still want to come here. We don’t realize that we demonize immigrants is why we are still competitive on the world stage. Without cheap labor from Mexico and talents from India and Asia, we would now be in an extremely disadvantageous position in the world competition. Companies will move to talent gathering places, and humble jobs will either not be filled, or the wages to be paid are too high, which will lead to massive inflation. But eventually, other places will become more popular, such as Canada and eurozone countries, and this is when the recession accelerates.
但总的来说，我们仍然拥有世界上最好的医院和大学，我们提供的是最划算的生活方式。这就是减缓美国衰亡的续命剂，因为富有的移民仍然希望来到这里。我们没有意识到，我们时常妖魔化的移民正是我们在世界舞台上仍然具有竞争力的原因。如果没有来自墨西哥的廉价劳动力和来自印度和亚洲的人才，我们现在将在世界竞争中处于一个极度不利的地位。公司将迁往人才聚集地，卑微的工作要么没有人填补，要么所需支付的工资太高，会导致大规模通货膨胀。但最终，其他地方会变得更受欢迎，比如加拿大和欧元区各国，而这正是美国衰退加速的时候。
After the collapse and decline of the United States, in the end, one or two generations will suffer and establish a will and desire with professional ethics and toughness. I think it has begun now. I see this sign in our younger generation. But we still have a way to go. From then on, we may become more socially and economically healthy, but the damage remains and we will no longer be a separate superpower. If we have to slash military spending so much that we rely on allies rather than vice versa, we may not even be a superpower at all. However, this may be a good thing for our society.
美国在崩溃、衰落后，最终，我们将有一两代人历尽艰辛，建立起一种具备基本道德、韧性的意志和对未来美好愿景的社会，也许现在已经开始了，我在我们的年轻一代身上看到了这种迹象。不过，我们还有一段路要走。从那时起，我们在社会和经济上可能会变得更加健康，虽然割裂后的伤痕依然存在。我们将不再是一个绝无仅有的超级大国，游离于世界岛之外，我们将不得不大幅削减军费开支，以至于依赖盟友抱团取暖，然而，这或许不是一件坏事。
