扒车喵近年，印度国内对加入联合国安理会常任理事国的呼声越来越强烈，有印度网友在海外问答论坛Quora上发帖询问道：为什么印度没有成为联合国常任理事国的一员，难道印度没有资格吗？一位印度国际问题专家认为印度完全有资格获取安理会常任理事国席位，但理性判断后，认为印度入常阻碍太多，归根结底还是实力不足，下面就是他的分析和回复。
为什么印度就不能成为联合国常任理事国？
In recent years, like India, Japan, Germany and Brazil have been actively applying for permanent seats on the UN Security Council. They believe that the “principle of unanimity of the five permanent powers” has always controlled the world, so the United Nations needs to change. I think India is fully qualified to become a permanent member of the United Nations for the following reasons:
近年来，和印度一样，日本、德国和巴西也一直积极申请联合国安理会常任理事国席位，他们认为“五常大国一致原则”一直掌控着这个世界，因此联合国需要进行变革。我觉得印度完全有资格成为了联合国常任理事国，原因如下：
▪ Besids China，India is the only country in the world with a population of more than one billion, with a long civilization and good historical tradition
▪ 印度是世界上唯二人口超过十亿的国家，拥有悠久的文明和良好的历史传统
▪ India is the third largest troop contributor to United Nations peacekeeping missions, sending about 16000 soldiers abroad
▪ 印度是联合国维和特派团的第三大部队派遣国，对外派遣了大约16000名士兵
▪ India is currently the world’s fastest-growing economy, the third largest economy (purchasing power parity) and the sixth largest nominal GDP economy
▪ 印度目前是世界上增长最快的经济体，也是第三大经济体（购买力平价）和六大名义GDP经济体
▪ India has one of the most powerful armies in the world
▪ 印度拥有世界上最强大的军队之一
▪ India has been elected to the UN Security Council seven times, and only Japan and Germany have been elected more than India
▪ 印度曾7次当选联合国安理会成员，只有日本和德国当选的次数多过印度
However, the conditions for joining the UN Security Council are very harsh. According to Article 108 of the Charter of the United Nations, in order to become a permanent member of the Security Council, we must first amend the Charter of the United Nations and increase the number of permanent members of the Security Council. The resolution can be implemented only if it is supported by two-thirds of the members of the United Nations General Assembly and the five permanent members do not move to veto the resolution.
但是，加入联合国安理会的条件非常苛刻。根据《联合国宪章》第108条，要想成为安理会常任理事国，首先必须修改《联合国宪章》，增加安理会常任理事国席位。只有得到联合国大会三分之二成员国的支持，同时五个常任理事国不动议否决该决议，该决议才能实施。
After the resolution is adopted, voting will begin, because member states will apply for permanent seats on the United Nations Security Council, so they must obtain a two-thirds majority in the general assembly. Similarly, permanent members shall not exercise the right of veto against them.
决议通过后，将开始投票，因为成员国将申请联合国安理会常任理事国席位，因此他们必须要获得大会三分之二的多数票，同样，常任理事国不得对他们行使否决权。
Now let’s get to the point. Why is India not a permanent member of the United Nations Security Council? Because when the United Nations was founded, it was not a country at all. It was just a colony of the British Empire in South Asia. It had no independent diplomatic status at all. Even if it was an independent country, it did not have enough strength and influence.
现在我们进入正题，为什么印度不是联合国安理会常任理事国？因为在联合国成立的时候，它根本不是一个国家，它只是大英帝国在南亚的一块殖民地，完全没有独立自主的外交地位，即使它是一个独立的国家，也没有足够的实力和影响力。
The permanent members of the United Nations are the product of the Second World War. The purpose of its establishment is to give the United Nations strong power and authority and make the United Nations have a certain ability to intervene in various world affairs. This requires that the permanent members must have strong military strength and economic capacity, and can exert international influence in all regions, which India did not have at that time.
联合国常任理事国是第二次世界大战的产物，其设立的目的是赋予联合国强大的权力和权威，让联合国对世界各项事务有一定的干涉能力。这就要求常任理事国必须具备强大的军事实力和经济能力，并在各区域内都能发挥国际影响力，而这些是当时的印度完全不具备的。
Then why not now? We must be soberly aware that India is not strong enough and its economic strength is not commensurate with that of other permanent members. Adding only one permanent member makes the situation more complicated. When discussing Security Council reform, India’s situation is not much better than that of Japan, Germany and Brazil. Moreover, at least they are supported by the United States and Britain, and India is basically isolated in the world. Therefore, it is difficult for India to join alone.
那为什么现在不行呢？我们必须清醒地认识到印度还不够强大，它的经济实力和其他常任理事国并不相称。只增加一个常任理事国会让局面变得更加复杂，在讨论安理会改革时，印度的情况并不比日本、德国和巴西好多少，况且至少他们后边还有美国、英国的支持，而印度在国际上基本孤立无援。所以让印度单独加入有一定的困难。
In the international community, it is easy for western countries to impose economic sanctions on poor countries. If permanent seats are increased, their economic development level must be considered. Among the members of the UN Security Council, India is basically the poorest. Although India exceeds Russia and Brazil in terms of economic aggregate, India lags far behind other Security Council countries in terms of per capita income.
在国际社会中，西方国家对贫困国家实施经济制裁轻而易举，如果增加常任理事国席位，必定要考虑其经济发展水平。而在联合国安理会成员中，印度基本是最贫穷的，虽然印度在经济总量上超过了俄罗斯和巴西，但从人均所得看来，印度远远落后于其他安理会国家。
In addition to pure economic development, India’s human development index score is also the lowest among the members of the United Nations Security Council (ranked 134 among 187 Member States, with a score of 0.547). In the evaluation, the United Nations tends to choose developing countries with more developed living standards, life expectancy, overall health, education and education. China is an example.
除了纯粹的经济发展，印度的人类发展指数得分在联合国安理会成员国中也是最低的（在187个成员国中排名134，得分为0.547），联合国在考评中，倾向于选择在生活水平、预期寿命、总体健康、教育、教育等方面更为发达的发展中国家，中国就是一个范例。
Another factor that is not conducive to India’s obtaining a permanent seat on the Security Council is India’s military situation. Becoming a permanent member requires a clear requirement: the ability to project certain military forces on a global scale. India can only project military power to neighboring countries, and its naval capacity can only project limited power in South and Southeast Asia at most. Although India, like China, is trying to achieve military modernization, its progress is far slower than that of China.
另一个不利于印度获得安理会常任理事国席位的因素是印度的军事情况。成为常任理事国有一个明确的要求：需要有能力在全球范围内投射一定军事力量的能力。而印度只能向周边国家投射军事力量，其海军能力最多只能在南亚和东南亚投射有限的力量。虽然印度和中国一样，正在努力实现军事现代化，但其进展速度远不及中国。
Finally, India also faces the biggest obstacle, that is, it needs the support of permanent members, including China, the United States, Russia, Britain and France, at least not to use the veto. However, the process of joining and obtaining a permanent seat on the Security Council is a process of undermining the current balance of power. According to past experience, one country will veto the voting result, which is a tacit understanding among major powers and a necessary means to avoid the complexity of the struggle among major powers.
最后，印度还面对一个最大的障碍，就是需要包括中国、美国、俄罗斯、英国、法国在内常任理事国的支持，至少不使用否决权。然而，加入获取安理会常任理事国席位的过程是破坏当前权力平衡的过程，根据以往的经验，表决结果一定会有一个国家进行否决，这是大国之间的默契，也是避免大国斗争复杂化的必要手段。
Unfortunately, although India has certain strength, it has not subverted the existing mechanism. When India develops to a certain extent and has extensive influence and high prestige in the world, it will not be so important whether it can obtain a permanent seat.
很可惜，虽然印度具备一定的实力，但是还没有到颠覆现有机制的程度，当印度发展到一定程度，在国际上拥有广泛的影响力和崇高的威望，到时候，能不能获得常任理事国席位，就没那么重要了。
